Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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157
FXUS63 KDVN 270125
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
825 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 825 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

Latest trends suggest additional organized showers and
thunderstorms will likely be setting up across northern MO. Have
made an adjustment to the flash flood watch to remove the northern
tier of counties along I-80. If current trends persist, further
removal of all IA counties and west central IL counties may be
needed as well.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

An approaching front and short wave aloft, combined with a loaded
moisture airmass feed boosted by some draw off southwest monsoon,
will produce areas of showers/storms tonight into early Thu with
heavy rain threat and isolated severe potentail. Pattern change
for drier and not as hot conditions still on track into the
weekend after we get through tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

Tonight...Building upon the earlier update discussion, incoming
short wave aloft and MCV starting to combine with 2000-3000 CAPEs
(that were allowed to build up despite high cloud debris) and
increasing deep shear to produce embedded flare ups of stronger
storms in the incoming areas of showers. After coordinating with
other offices and appearance that the heavy rain threat isolated and
very localized north of I80, have trimmed off one tier of counties
from the north of the flash flood watch. But looking at increasing
activity out toward the Omaha area moving east-southeast, and juiced
air mass coming in, refuse to cut any more of the watch off for now.
At least isolated severe storms possible as well this evening with
damaging wind bursts primary threat. Intense-very heavy rainfall
rates under the passing storms, but hopefully they are progressive
and don`t hit the same areas over an over to limit flash flood
threat this evening. But again will have to watch the upstream
showers/storms out toward the Omaha area from coming in along and
south of I80 this evening with heavy rains. After that, some signs
that the overnight focus for more enhanced storm clusters or an MCS
will take off just southwest and south of the DVN CWA and interrupt
the prime THTA-E feed(rob from the north), bringing about an
eventual decrease in local convection and intensity. But saying
that, there is also the potentail that some of the resultant complex
of storms may still clip at least the southern quarter to third of
the DVN CWA overnight, thus the hanging on of the flash flood watch.
All in all, still can see some areas in the flash flood watch getting
1 to 3 inches of rain by early Thu morning, although they may be
localized.

Areas late tonight where the precip wanes, with light convergent
winds and lingering high sfc DPTs, there may be some fog. Will put
some patchy wording north of I80 for now. lows in the mid 60s in the
far northwest, to the low 70s south.

Thursday...some lingering showers possible in the south, but feel
models hanging on too long well into the afternoon. Highs in the
upper 70s to low 80s, but mid to upper 60s or even a 70 DPT hangs on
to keep it rather humid until better post-frontal dry down late Thu
into Fri occurs.    ..12..

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

Main story in the long term is quiet and dry weather that is needed
after the heavy rains of the past couple of weeks.  Friday, high
pressure is forecast to move into the area as H85 temps cool and
drier air makes its way into the area.  This high pressure sticks
around through most of the long term until the H5 ridge begins
building in for the middle of next week.

Main forecast challenges in the long term are temperatures and how
low to go this weekend.  Dewpoints drop into the low 50s with fetch
off Lake Michigan.  This could lead to lows to be lower than
currently forecast. Overall, long term looks beautiful and quiet.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
ISSUED AT 711 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

A line of thunderstorms crossing the Mississippi River at 00z
will likely exit the region early this evening with some
redevelopment possibly affecting the BRL area again later this
evening. Lingering moisture and the slow passage of a weak front
will likely lead to the development of fog overnight. Have
initially gone out with mainly MVFR and brief IFR conditions for
visibility restrictions and lowered ceilings late tonight into the
early daylight hours Thursday morning. Conditions are expected to
improve to VFR by mid morning and remain VFR through the day.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

The flood wave continues to move down the Wapsipinicon River,
with the crest approaching Anamosa where it should crest Thursday.
Downstream near the DeWitt gage there remains a bit of uncertainty
as to how high the water will get. With levels cresting a bit
below the original forecasts it is not out of the question that
it may crest below 12.5 feet at DEWI4. However, uncertainty with
the rain event for this afternoon and evening leaves enough
concern to not make any adjustments to the forecast at this time.

The Pecatonica River continues to rise upstream of Stephenson
County, however looks to be nearing the crest at Martintown, WI
early this afternoon. Also, reports from Emergency Management
indicate the river is spreading significantly across farmland in
the floodplain so considerable amounts water is still making
its way into and through the river system. While the timing is
uncertain, feel quite confident that the river will begin to rise
again soon in the Freeport area, and could approach the 16.0 ft
mark again, which the ongoing forecast shows. With all the water
yet to move through the Pecatonica and into the Rock River, will
continue to see high levels along the Rock River through its
confluence with the Mississippi River. However, the primary crest
is working through the lower reaches of the Rock, where Moline
appears to have crested last night while maintaining a nearly
steady height through today.

The Mississippi River at the Quad Cities is receding and will
likely fall below flood stage yet today. The crest has made it to
the Keithsburg area, with areas upstream receding and downstream
still rising. No areas are currently forecast to hit moderate
flood stage.

Today`s rain continues to be a concern. It still looks like the
heaviest widespread rains will fall in areas near I-80 and
southward, though any thunderstorm will have the potential for
torrential rainfall and 1 to 2 inches in a short amount of time.
This will be monitored closely as any shift in the expected
heavier rainfall corridor could make a big difference in the river
forecasts.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Thursday for Des Moines-Henry
     IA-Jefferson-Lee-Van Buren.

IL...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Thursday for Hancock-Henderson-
     McDonough-Warren.

MO...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Thursday for Clark-Scotland.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Sheets
SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...Gibbs
AVIATION...Sheets
HYDROLOGY...Brooks



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