Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 050949
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
349 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

SYNOPSIS...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS BEHIND A WEAK WAVE IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT THAT BROUGHT SMALL/SCATTERED...BUT CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
TO PARTS OF E IOWA/W ILLINOIS DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME
PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. FOLLOWING THE WAVE OF 700MB WAA/NEGATIVE OMEGA
HAS BEEN A POOL OF DRIER AIR IN THE 850-700MB LAYER AND DRY
WEATHER AT THE SFC ACROSS THE REGION. SFC TEMPS WERE IN THE 20S
AND A BATCH OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS APPARENT ON THE 11.0- 3.9 IR
DIFFERENCE PRODUCT WAS PERSISTENT ROUGHLY EAST OF A CEDAR RAPIDS
IOWA TO MACOMB ILLINOIS LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

TODAY AND TONIGHT...TODAY WILL BE SEASONAL AS HIGH TEMPS RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S FAR NORTHERN DVN CWA TO MID 30S FAR SOUTH.
ANOTHER...MORE DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
E IOWA/W ILLINOIS FROM THE WNW LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE THIS FEATURE
SHOWS BETTER ORGANIZATION COMPARED TO THURSDAY EVENING/S WEAK
DISTURBANCE...THE FORMER WILL BE DEALING WITH VERY DRY LOWER
LAYERS AND 800-700MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 5 C/KM...WHICH ARE
UNSUPPORTIVE OF THE SMALL CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS THAT OCCURRED
THURSDAY EVENING WHEN LAPSE RATES WERE MUCH STEEPER.

ADDED FLURRIES IN THE NW DURING THE LATE AFTN...THEN HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EVENING. ANY ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL
REMAIN WEAK BUT AS 850MB WAA/LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE
AND COINCIDE WITH SATURATED LOW-LEVELS SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. FOR MOST AREAS A DUSTING OR NOTHING OF SNOW ACCUMULATION...
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES TO RECEIVE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OVER THE W/NW
DVN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THE ARRIVAL OF A
CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

EXPECT MODERATING TEMPS INTO THE 30S/40S OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER RIDGE TRAVERSES THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL BE FOLLOWED
QUICKLY BY A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME VARIANCE IN THE
TIMING AND TRACK...BUT GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SEEMS
REASONABLE. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCH OF THE SURFACE TO 700
MB LAYER COOLING INTO THE -10 TO -20C RANGE...FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER
SNOW RATIOS AND POTENTIALLY SOME ISOLATED HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS.
ANOTHER FACTOR WILL BE IN THE INCREASING WIND BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SURFACE LOW...EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 25 MPH AND HIGHER
GUSTS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR BLOWING AND SHALLOW DRIFTING SNOW. THIS
COULD BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADDED PATCHY
BLOWING SNOW TO THIS AREA AND WILL MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF MONDAY EVENING.

LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT MUCH COLDER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP
BELOW ZERO EARLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. SOME MODERATION IS
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST
FROM TUESDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E/SE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING
RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES BY 12Z FRI. WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA DURING THE LATE AM AND
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY TURNING SOUTHERLY WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
EFFECTIVE SURFACE WARM FRONT AIDED BY NORTHERN PLAINS DOWNSLOPING
ALONG WITH UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCE OF FLURRIES AND
SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE AND
IMPACT TO TERMINAL THUS FOR NOW HAVE ADDRESSED WITH VCSH WORDING.
LIKELY TO BE PERIODS OF MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY
SNOW SHOWERS... BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE ON IMPACT AT ANY ONE TERMINAL
TOO LOW AT THIS TIME FOR MENTION.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...MCCLURE


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