Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 250410

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1110 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016


Issued at 254 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Sfc high pressure this afternoon slide across the upper Great
Lakes. Clear skies and winds of less than 10 mph were observed
across the area. A wave in the H5 flow over the Rockies is
expected to move east through the period and provide the impetus
for showers and possibly thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Main forecast concern for the short term are the chances of rain
and even thunder towards the end of the period. Guidance differs
greatly on the track of the low for being just 24 hours out. The
track of the low will greatly affect chances for thunder later in
the short term.

Tonight, mostly clear skies and light winds will lead to the
development of patchy frost across the NE CWA. If clouds move in
faster than currently forecast, then frost won`t be much of a
concern. Latest guidance actually slows the progression of the
clouds. This leads to higher confidence in patchy frost across the

Tomorrow, guidance is hinting at a warm advection wing with
showers and possibly embedded thunderstorms. This precip will
likely have to compete with a dry low levels. Current thinking is
that the best chances for rain will occur after 00Z Wednesday.
CAMs show light returns with this WAA wing, so will keep the
overall chc pops for the area.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Tuesday night/Wednesday the next storm system moves through the
area. The key will be where the low tracks. The models currently
suggest the WI/IL border. However, the 12z ECMWF suggests closer to

Regardless, a majority of the area should be dry at sunset Tuesday
with precipitation rapidly developing as the overall forcing
increases and moisture aloft streams into the area. Internally, the
models suggest the atmosphere will become unstable aloft which will
allow some elevated thunderstorms to develop.

The question Wednesday afternoon is whether or not there will be
enough instability aloft to allow isolated thunderstorms to persist.
The possibility does exist that Wednesday afternoon may only see
rain showers that slowly end from west to east.

Wednesday evening, there may or may not be some lingering rain
showers east of the Mississippi river. After midnight dry conditions
will be seen across the area.

Dry conditions with seasonable temperatures will be seen across the
area on Thursday as high pressure moves through the Midwest.

Thursday night on...

The quiet and dry conditions will continue Thursday night and Friday
morning as high pressure moves into the eastern Great Lakes.
Attention then turns to the next storm system.

The model consensus has slight chance to chance pops Friday
afternoon/evening as the next storm system moves through the area.
The better forcing is well north of the area and moisture will be
somewhat limited when the front moves through the area. Temperatures
will average above normal on Friday.

Late Friday night through next Monday the model consensus has mainly
dry conditions for the area. The possible exception is Saturday
night into Sunday when a weak upper level disturbance moves through
the area. However, moisture will be very limited so the possibility
does exist that Saturday night/Sunday may be dry.

Temperatures next weekend look to be near normal with temperatures
warming a little above normal for Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Low pressure over the plains states will spread east into Iowa by
Wednesday morning. This process will increase the southeast
from around 5 kt overnight to 10 to 15 kts by late morning
Tuesday. Clouds will continue to increase, but remain VFR as cigs
of 5000 to 10000 are expected through Tuesday afternoon while warm
air spreads up over top of the cool low level air. Rain chances
are expected in the evening hours Tuesday night in Iowa, but the
initial 3 to 6 hours of rainfall is expected to be very light and




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