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000
FXUS63 KDVN 191724
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1224 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost and freezing overnight lows are expected through the
  weekend as temperatures dip into the 20s across portions of
  the area.

- Additional frost and freeze advisories and warnings will
  likely be needed for the next couple of nights.

- Active pattern keeps wave after wave moving through the area.
  Most of these waves will result in clouds and wind. Precip
  returns to start next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A large upper level low will lumber to the east through the
short term. This low will aide in bringing colder temperatures
into the area today. This low will also bring windy conditions
to the area with gusts approaching 30kts this afternoon. The
clear skies we have right now may see some CU redevelopment
today. Otherwise, expect clear skies tonight and temperatures
dropping off tonight. Lows in the upper 20s across the north and
mid 30s across the south are expected. While there is some
uncertainty about frost development due to the winds tonight,
lows will be near freezing so additoinal frost and freeze
products are likely needed. With an advisory out for this AM,
have opted to for this advisory to expire before we issue
another one.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Active period persists the active flow regime remains. Saturday,
the coldest air of this incursion is expected. H92 temps barely
get above freezing. Luckily for us, it should be clear, so
warming should lead to temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s.
The HRRR depicts some showers underneath the cyclonic flow of
the upper level low. Think that the llvls will likely be rather
dry and any `showers` that develop will likely result in just
virga. Saturday night looks like the coldest for the area with
lows at or below freezing across most of the area. We will
likely need more frost/freeze products for this as well.

To start next week, a strong clipper will move into High Plains
and translate over the upper Mississippi River valley into
Tuesday. Deep moisture is expected to be pulled north with this
system and likely lead to precipitation across the area. This
precipitation looks tied to two surface boundaries with this
clipper. Mainly rain is expected, however some thunder cannot be
ruled out. Guidance is not in good agreement with the timing of
these boundaries and thus precip chances. We will need to keep
an eye this timing difference this weekend as the slower models
have fropa during the day on Tuesday during peak heating.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Breezy conditions will persist the rest of the daylight hours
today, with west to northwest winds at 15 kts gusting to near 30
kts. Skies will remain mostly clear with only high clouds
expected through Saturday. After dark tonight, winds will
decrease to northwest around 10 kts, before increasing again
after 14Z Saturday back to 12-15kts.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...Gibbs
AVIATION...Ervin/Uttech/Wilson