Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 181801

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1201 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018


Issued at 340 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

High pressure ridge in the Gulf Coast states with low pressure in
Canada. This is bringing a southwest surface wind with early
morning temperatures in the teens.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

Other than patchy cirrus, skies will be mainly clear, along with
southwest winds. This will bring warmer air into the cwa beginning
the snow melt process. Highs will be in the 30s with lows in the
upper teens to lower 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

Above normal temperatures with storm system of rain Sunday changing
to snow Monday.

Long Term Forecast Confidence Assessment...fair or average. Quiet
with limited weather impacts until late Saturday with possible high
temperatures about 1 to 3 degrees too low Friday into Sunday. Risk
of drizzle and possibly some freezing drizzle north Saturday night.
Still limited confidence on locations and amounts of snow on
late Monday into Tuesday as system moves east.

Friday through Saturday...still on for nice warmup for late January
with mostly fair skies and highs mostly in the 40s. Mins in the 20s,
rising into the 30s Saturday night. Mostly southwest winds of 5 to
10 mph with 15+ mph gusts in afternoon.

Sunday...minor changes. Rain with possibly isolated thunder for
later shifts to still consider with an occluding upper low which
still rate of occlusion is a bit uncertain. Rainfall amounts still
suggest mostly a half inch or less most areas. Analysis of highs in
the 40s and lower 50s south and 48 hours plus of above freezing
temperatures should allow for at least a few inches of thaw to the
ground by late Sunday rains. This with only moderate rains suggest
some amelioration of any water impacts of these rains regarding
hydro risk and impact issues. Later shifts will need to monitor
this. Sunday night, front to pass with lows still mostly above

Monday and Monday night...wraparound light rain to light snow
suggested with any snow accumulation limited accumulations
suggested. Temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s for highs and
mins mostly in the 20s.

Tuesday and Thursday...return to mostly fair skies and near normal
temperatures for highs and lows. This is mostly 25 to 35 for highs
and lows 15 to 25 with maybe 5 degrees warmer for Thursday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

Another VFR TAF cycle through Fri morning, with ongoing general
west-to-east pressure gradient through the area maintaining
southwest sfc winds of 10-15+ KTs into early evening. If sfc winds
can drop below 5-7 KTs late tonight, there may be some marginal
low level wind shear(LLWS) with 35 KT southwesterly winds from
1000 to 2000 FT AGL. Just passing rounds of high clouds from the
west through the period.   ..12..




LONG TERM...Nichols
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