Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 191740
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1240 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 814 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HAVE EXPIRED THE FROST ADVISORY IN WESTERN ILLINOIS AS TEMPERATURES
WILL BE RISING QUICKLY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND RETURNING SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HEADLINES...FROST ADVISORY IN WESTERN IL WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM.

TODAY...WARMER DAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH
TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA
AND TRACKS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. WARM AIR ADVECTION
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA BUT THE LOW LEVELS
ARE VERY DRY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND.
BESIDES...THE BETTER FORCING IS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THE SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PULL WARMER AIR INTO THE CWA AND I WILL FORECAST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HOWEVER...IF CLOUD COVER
IS LESS THAN EXPECTED THESE READINGS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED SOMEWHAT.

TONIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
IT WILL SEND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...
BUT THIS IS MORE OF A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THAN ANYTHING
ELSE. ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE BETTER FORCING WELL TO OUR NORTH AND
LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN WITH THIS FRONT.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO DECREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
EXPECT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST THEMES THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

ON MONDAY...A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT A
BRISK NORTHWEST BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE FAVORED THE COOLER END
OF GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON TEMPS...WITH NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING
A MIXED LAYER TO 850MB AND HIGHS NEAR 60 NORTH...MID/UPPER 60S
SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...
ALLOWING TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TUESDAY AND ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN TIERS OF
COUNTIES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL HEAD EAST WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE INTO IOWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 19/00Z ECMWF AND GFS
ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT...BOTH INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN SPREADING INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL DIVE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE DOMINATED
BY BROAD UPPER RIDGING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR TAF CYCLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...JUST PASSING MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING THEN CLEARING AGAIN FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. DRY LLVL FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL VEER BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS TO THE WEST
THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTERLY LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT ENOUGH SFC WINDS TO PREVENT SHALLOW OR
GROUND FOG TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND WILL KEEP VSBYS
ABOVE 6SM.   ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...12






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