Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
000
FXUS63 KDVN 152355
AFDDVN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
655 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A windy weekend with a cool down on track into early next week,
but then temperatures to rebound by midweek.
- Overall generally quiet weather through the period as most
precipitation producing systems miss the area.
- Low confidence on rain chances late next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
Tonight...Central plains/MO RVR Valley sfc ridge to slide
southeastward, while a vigorous upper low currently acrs
northeastern Manitoba digs down toward the north central GRT LKS in
amplifying northwesterlies aloft. As a result, rather light west to
northwest winds will back to the southwest and increase toward
morning as an associated sfc front plows it`s way down into northern
IA by 12z Sat. A backing and increasing H85 mb LLJ to 35-40+ KTs
will be warm advecting, and combined with the sfc increase we may a
non-diurnal temp trend toward dawn. Sfc temps look to dip into the
mid to upper 30s before the steady to slow climb affect occurs.
Saturday...Interesting day with a breezy wind-switch around the
FROPA(frontal passage) process mid to late morning. Pre-frontal west-
southwest sfc winds may gust up to 30 MPH in the morning with
warming-mixing boosting temps early. Then the FROPA occurs with an
eventual wind veer west to northwest as the afternoon progresses.
Deeper post-frontal mixing seen on fcst sounding profiles to
possibly transport surge northwesterly sfc wind gusts to 35-40 MPH
during the afternoon. The deep mixing and a bit of a lower thickness
lag behind the front also to help the 75th percentile high temp
scenario and will go mid 50s north, to the low to mid 60s in the far
southern CWA. Robust low to mid level F-gen along and behind
the front may try to produce spotty precip in any more developed
stratocu trying to stream acrs the area(northeastern half of
the CWA) during the afternoon. But vertical profiles are dry and
suspect just a few sprinkles or virga may develop if anything
at all, again in the more organized and lower stratocu decks or
patches. Will keep the fcst dry for now.
With the gusty winds and lowering humidity in the afternoon combined
with all the still cured dried/winter dead warm season vegetation/
brush acrs the area, looks like another enhanced fire danger day on
tap for Saturday. Grassland Fire Danger Index(GFDI) values go well
up in the very high range, but not enough or widespread extreme
values to support a Red Flag Warning headline. Will still advertise
an enhanced fire danger in several other products. ..12..
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
Saturday night through Monday: In the wake of the strong cold front,
temperatures will be much colder on northwest winds. Deep trough
centered over the Great Lakes region will send polar air into the
Midwest with h8 temps of -13C. Any snow showers associated with this
system looks to remain well to our northeast. Highs will be only in
the upper 30s to lower 40s and lows in the upper teens to mid 20s.
Tuesday through Friday: The cold air is short-lived as we get back
into a near zonal flow, as the deep trough moves to the New England
states. Temperatures warm into the 50s to lower 60s for highs with
lows in the 30s. Late in the week, the GFS is showing the potential
for some rain but the ECMWF is farther south and keeps the forecast
area dry. Being about a week away low confidence in the track of
this storm system.
Looking beyond: Both global models indicate an intense spring
cyclone in the central United States about March 24-25. When both
the ECMWF and GFS are similar there is better confidence. Stay tuned!
Haase
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
VFR will prevail through the period but with windy conditions
developing on Saturday, which may lead to a brief period of
low-level wind shear in the morning (westerly 40-45 kt winds at
2000 ft AGL). At the surface, anticipate WSW winds overnight to
veer to the NW later Saturday morning and afternoon, gusting to
30 - 35 kts at times into the early evening hours before gradually
decreasing.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...Uttech