Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 022350
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
650 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A NEAR STATIONARY 850MB HIGH OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SATELLITE TRENDS
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON SHOWS LOW CLOUDS FROM EASTERN MISSOURI INTO
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF IOWA WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST WITH 50S AND 60S FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

QUIET AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE SEEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES.

ON WEDNESDAY CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN
DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
OVERSPREADING THE WESTERN THIRD OR SO OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY MAY SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES IN SOME AREAS
WITH READINGS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MODERATE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE
OR FAIR TO GOOD. MAIN ISSUES ARE NORMAL MINOR BL RH ISSUES THAT TEND
TO BE TOO MOIST AND TOO CLOUDY AND TIMING AND COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
EVENTS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW...MODERATE VARIANCES IN SOLUTIONS WITH RUN TO RUN VARIANCE
AND INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION SUGGESTING A 50/50 MIX OF GFS AND
ECMWF. POOR CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF STORMS BUT ALL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
LOWER END INSTABILITY AND FORCING SHEAR FOR LOW TO NIL CHANCES OF SEVERE
WEATHER AND SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINS WITH BEST RISKS TO OUR SW
DAYS THROUGH 7.

DAYS 2 THROUGH 7...CONSISTENT PATTERN OF LOW TO MODERATE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. LOW TO MODERATE INSTABILITY OF AOB 1500
J/KG AND LOW SHEAR AND FORCING SUPPORT MINIMAL OR NO CHANCES OF SEVERE
STORMS. LOCAL PW VALUES BETWEEN 1.25 TO 1.75 INCHES DO SUPPORT LOCALLY
LOW END HEAVY RAINS BUT BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING IS TO OUR SW. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE CONSISTENTLY NEAR NORMAL WITH MODERATE HUMIDITY. HIGHS UPPER
70S TO MIDDLE 80S AND MINS UPPER 50 TO MOSTLY LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. CHANCE
OF A MCS SYSTEM WITH FRONT THIS WEEKEND TO LOCALLY KEEP HIGHS SOME LOCATIONS
IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S. THIS SHOULD BE BETTER KNOWN IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACRS THE GRT LKS...AND A DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM ACRS
THE PLAINS TONIGHT INTO WED. SOUTH SFC WINDS OF 5-10 KTS WILL GO
LIGHT SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. DEVELOPING LLVL INVERSION MAY AGAIN
TRY TO TRAP SOME DEVELOPING STRATOCU TOWARD MORNING AROUND THE
1K-1500FT AGL LEVEL AND WILL KEEP ONGOING 1300FT SCT DECK
INTRODUCED ON EARLIER TAF PACKAGE. ALSO SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE
JUST BEFORE DAWN WED AM. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS BACK TO AROUND
10KTS BY LATE WED MORNING...WITH HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS PUSHING
IN FROM THE WEST. A LOW CHC OF DECAYING SHOWERS TO MOVE OUT OF
CENTRAL IA AND GET INTO THE VCNTY OF CID BY LATE WED AFTERNOON AND
WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAF JUST YET.    ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...12


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