Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 172001

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
301 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

18Z surface data has a cold front running from central Wisconsin
into southwest Missouri. Dew points were in the 40s and 50s ahead of
the cold front with 30s behind the front across the Plains.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

Dry but breezy conditions will be seen through sunset followed by
mainly dry conditions tonight. There is some weak forcing that will
act on the moisture associated with the clouds moving back into the
area that could generate a few flurries in the northeast third of
the area. However, the sub cloud layer is quite dry so the
possibility does exist that no flurries will reach the surface.

Breezy and cool conditions will be seen across the area on Saturday
with clearing skies. Temperatures should average close to normal.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

The overall flow aloft across the northern hemisphere is very
conducive for an active weather regime through the end of March.
Some of the extratropical cyclones that develop across the CONUS
will have the potential to be strong.

Saturday night and Sunday quiet and dry conditions will be seen
across the area as high pressure moves into the Great Lakes.
Attention then turns to Sunday night and Monday.

Sunday night into Monday, the overall scenario being suggested by
the models looks similar to this past Thursday night. Forcing will
increase Sunday evening as moisture moves into the area. The early
evening looks to be dry but by mid to late evening nocturnal showers
and thunderstorms will begin developing and increase in coverage
after midnight.

Profiles of the atmosphere show favorable instability and dry air
aloft that would support the generation of hail with the stronger

The nocturnal convection will quickly dissipate Monday morning as
the overall forcing weakens and another cold front moves through the
area. Monday afternoon looks to be mainly dry for the entire area.

Monday night on...

Monday night through sunset Wednesday mainly dry conditions will be
seen as a strong Canadian high pressure moves through the Midwest
and into the eastern Great Lakes. Temperatures should average above
normal. Attention then turns to the second half of the week.

Wednesday night through Friday the global models agree that at least
two storm system will affect the Midwest. However, there continues
to be disagreement on storm tracks and timing. Part of the energy
that will develop these storm systems is over the western Pacific
Ocean. Until this energy can be sampled by the more dense land
observing networks, there will be little run to run consistency with
the individual models.

The CMC global and 00z ECMWF have the storm systems passing to the
west of the area. Such a track would suggest more rain than snow.
The GFS takes the storm systems directly over the area suggesting a
rain/snow mix that would change over to snow after the low passes.

The current model consensus has slight chance pops Wednesday night,
chance to likely pops Thursday, and likely to categorical pops
Thursday night/Friday.

Based on Dprog/DT trends of the models, the strong Canadian high
over the Great Lakes may slow down the arrival of the first storm
system. If this occurs, then Wednesday night and possibly Thursday
could end up being dry.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

VFR conditions will be seen through 00z/18 as a cold front moves
into the Ohio Valley. After 00z/18 MVFR conditions will develop
across eastern Iowa and northern Illinois as wrap around clouds
move into the area. After 12z/18 conditions will slowly improve to
VFR as high pressure builds into the Midwest.




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