Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 160805

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
305 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

06Z surface data has a cold front from central Lake Superior into
northwest Kansas. Dew points ahead of the front were in the 60s with
40s and 50s behind the front. Dew points in the 30s were across the
northern Plains.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

The showers and isolated thunderstorms will slowly end west of the
Mississippi before sunrise as the cold front starts moving into the
area. Patchy fog will be possible across much of eastern Iowa.

The cold front will stall out across the area during the morning and
then dissipate during the afternoon. Lingering showers east of the
Mississippi after sunrise are expected to end by mid to late

Dry and warm conditions are expected during the afternoon with
temperatures above normal.

Tonight, the early evening hours will initially be dry. As forcing
increases during the evening, isolated showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms will develop north of highway 30 near a developing
warm front.

The warm front will then slowly move north after midnight and
confine any rain to the highway 20 corridor. Temperatures tonight
will be well above normal.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Looks like a roller coaster ride next week starting Monday.

Monday...bumped temps and wind up and dropped dew points a bit
anticipating we will mix out the very warm temps at 925/850 mb
ahead of the cold front progged to move into Iowa during the day.
In fact if parameters come together, especially lower dew points,
we could approach Red Flag conditions for the potential of crop
harvest fires Monday afternoon with warm temps, low RHs and gusty

The cold front pushes through the area during the day Tuesday,
but the real cold air holds off for the passage of an upper level
trough in the latter half of the week. That secondary surge of
cold air and trough passage might generate some showers, but
amounts should be generally light if they occur at all. 850mb
temps drop to around 0C Thursday-Friday suggesting low temps in
the 30s, at least in the north which implies a frost/freeze risk.

Though all the way out at day 7 on Saturday, models indicate a
decent warmup with 850mb temps warming ~10 degrees Saturday.
Strength of WAA suggests potential for showers, but model QPFs do


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

A cool front will drop southeastward across eastern Iowa this
morning before stalling. Winds will briefly turn southwesterly
early this morning with the front before returning to the south
as the front moves northward.

Expect showers at all taf sites through 09 utc with aviation fog
to develop at all taf sites with visibilties possibly as low as
LIFR at CID and DBQ. Visibilities and ceilings will begin to
improve after 16 utc with possible vfr ceilings by 20
utc...similar to today. Have left it out of the tafs for now but
some concern that low clouds and fog will develop again late
Sunday into Monday.




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