Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 101142
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
642 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014

INTENSE CYCLONE WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF JAMES BAY WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO NW WI AND INTO EASTERN NEB AND NW KS. VERY
DRY LOW LEVELS ARE IN PLACE WITH THE BETTER FORCING WELL TO OUR
NORTH. ONLY SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS WERE NOTED IN
CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WI NEAR THE FRONT. 3 AM TEMPERATURES WERE
MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WERE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
ACROSS THE DVN CWA. DEWPOINTS WERE RUNNING AT LEAST SEVERAL
DEGREES LOWER THAN GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED...AND WERE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWED ONLY SOME AREAS OF CIRRUS
ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUED MILD.

TODAY...DUE TO THE DRY LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE FACT
THAT SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED...I HAVE REDUCED POPS INTO CHANCE CATEGORY FROM
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE POPS MAY STILL
BE TOO HIGH AS THE BETTER FORCING REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH. BUT
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ENOUGH SATURATION AND CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT TO GET A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES GOING. WINDS WILL SWITCH
TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. I WILL FORECAST
LOWER TO MID 60S BUT IF THERE IS MORE SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED THEN
TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT HIGHER.

TONIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA WITH CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WITH THE DRY AIRMASS AND DRY GROUND
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS. SOME CIRRUS MAY ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AS WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
RETURNS TO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014

MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IS WITH FAVORABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES WILL INTERACT TO FORM A
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WEST AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ARE ANTICIPATED AS SHORTWAVES EJECT OUT OF
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND THEN THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH HEADS TOWARD
THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

FRIDAY...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEREFORE KEPT WITH
A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH LOW/MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS/WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO DRAW INCREASING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AND SET THE STAGE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE EJECTS TOWARD THE AREA.

AM EXPECTING THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TO BE THE FIRST ROUND...WITH ANOTHER ROUND CLOSER TO THE FRONT
AS IT PRESSES SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM EVOLUTION
AND TIMING...BUT STILL THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD
FRONT. BOTH MODELS BRING THE FRONT INTO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FORECAST
SECTIONS SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE GFS BRINGS THE COLD FRONT
ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF
HANGS UP THE FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY
SUNDAY. THE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION AS SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS VERSUS RAIN IS DIFFERENT DEPENDING ON THE MODEL TIMING
OF THE FRONT...BUT EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE MODERATE
PRECIPITATION FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO RAMP UP AGAIN BY LATE SUNDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE EJECTS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE MAIN TROUGH AND A SURFACE
LOW EJECTS OUT OF THE PLAINS. THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL DRAW
IN SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...SO
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH COOLING TAKES PLACE FROM TOP DOWN THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR SNOW TO FALL ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA FOR A FEW HOURS. WHEN SAID AND DONE...1-2
INCH RAIN TOTALS LOOK QUITE POSSIBLE FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DRAWN IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
HELD IN THE 40S. MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES MAY
BOTTOM OUT AS LOW AS THE UPPER 20S IN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE COLD AIR WILL LINGER FOR TUESDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
MODERATE SOME WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS OF 10-15 KTS AT
SURFACE AHEAD OF A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT ARRIVING
THIS MORNING. SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ROUGHLY ALONG THIS FRONT. THE LOW AREAL
COVERAGE OR IMPACTS AT THE TAF SITES IS TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS
MORNING. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN 10/13-16Z...WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20+ KTS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 KTS AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL THEN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...STOFLET
AVIATION...HAASE






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