Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 230845
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
345 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

High level clouds filtered into portions of eastern Iowa during
the early morning hours. Otherwise, the sky was clear with storms
located well to the west across the central and high Plains. early
morning temperatures ranged from the mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

The main forecast issue in the short term period is the coverage
of showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon and tonight, and
the potential for any strong to marginally severe storms.

Southerly winds will begin to increase today, with a modest bump
in dewpoints into the 50s. Expect another unseasonably warm day
with 850 mb temps slightly warmer than Sunday. Have added roughly
a degree to yesterday`s temps, which yields highs in the low to
mid 80s. Convection across the Plains will continue to push east
today, but is expected to weaken as it approaches the western
fringes of the forecast area late this afternoon and evening.
Relatively weak shear should preclude any organized severe
weather. Coverage of showers and storms should increase somewhat
after midnight as elevated instability pushes east, although have
kept pops limited to the high chance category. Lows tonight will
dip around 60 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Overview, forecast focus on an active period with several rounds
of showers and thunderstorms this week. Severe weather and locally
heavy rainfall are all on the table. Deep trough will be anchored
in the Rockies with a series of disturbances rotating northeast in
the flow into the Midwest. Temperatures will also remain above
normal with dewpoints pushing well into the 60s to around 70.
There will be several periods with likely pops this week. Rainfall
of 1 to 3 inches appears possible over much of the cwa this week,
with potentially higher amounts in repeating storms.

Tuesday through Wednesday, low pressure will be ejecting out of the
Rockies trough and into the upper Midwest during this period.
Operational models suggest mid level winds will be increasing to 40
knots with bulk shear to 35 knots, along with SBCAPES over 2500 J/KG
and Pwat`s over 1.50 inches. This sets up the potential for large
hail and damaging winds sometime during this time frame. SPC has a
slight risk for severe storms for portions of the cwa especially
Tuesday night. A front looks to hang up over our southern cwa on
Wednesday which may be the focus for at least isolated severe storms.
Highs should be in the lower 80s with dewpoints pushing well into
the 60s.

Wednesday night and Thursday, another low pressure system pushes
into the Midwest setting up the potential for an mcs to ride across
the cwa. SPC has a slight risk of severe storms along and south of
Interstate 80 with damaging winds and large hail the main threats.
Locally heavy rainfall also is possible.

Thursday night through Friday night, this is when the main energy
and more organized surface low pushes across the Midwest. This is
when even stronger mid level winds will be over the area so the
potential for severe storms will continue.

Saturday and Sunday, low confidence as models struggling with where
the surface boundary will set up either across the cwa or to our
south.  For now we will continue with chance pops. Temperatures will
continue on the warm side.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Monday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

VFR flying conditions for at least the next 24 hours. Fair skies and
light south to southeast winds overnight into Monday. After 23/15z...winds
will increase from the south at 10 to 15+ kts. After 24/01z...isolated
showers and maybe a thunderstorm may approach the cid terminal. The
low probability of occurrence does not support adding to the terminal
forecast at this time. South winds will diminish to 5 to 10 kts after
sunset.

&&

.DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP Kinney
SHORT TERM...RP Kinney
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...Nichols



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