Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 301755
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1255 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 718 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

DRY SLOT IS NOW QUITE PROMINENT FROM MISSOURI INTO EASTERN IOWA.
TRENDS IN PRESSURE FALLS AND RADAR INDICATE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
WILL BE ENDING EARLIER. TRENDS IN THE RAP MODEL CONTINUE TO
INDICATE NEGATIVE THETA E LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW REDEVELOPMENT IN THE FORM OF RAIN
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE FULLY RULED
OUT SOUTH OF I-80.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

06Z SFC DATA HAS AN INFERRED LOW NEAR KEMP IN EASTERN KANSAS. AN
INVERTED TROF RAN FROM THE LOW NORTHWEST TO THE KS/NE BORDER. DEW
POINTS WERE IN THE 30S FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH 40S AND 50S FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S WERE IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

THROUGH SUNRISE...A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE MAKING
SLOW PROGRESS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. SOUTH OF I-80...PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A MUCH LARGER AREA OF LIGHT RAIN.

ON SATURDAY...A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN
AND EASTERLY WINDS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES 15 TO POSSIBLY 20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 MAY STAY IN THE 40S.

BASED ON OVERALL FORCING AND MOISTURE PROFILES...ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR SOUTH OF I-80 FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KOTM TO KGBG
LINE.

TONIGHT...THE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL SLOWLY FALL APART AS THE BETTER
FORCING SHIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WIDESPREAD RAIN DURING THE
EVENING WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE SHOWERY...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KOTM TO KGBG
LINE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER AND MOSTLY DRY AND TENDING CLOSE TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH TOO
MOIST BL SUGGESTING ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY
TO TEND TO BE LIGHTER WITH LOWER POPS. THEN TYPICAL DIURNAL RANGE ISSUES
OF A BIT UNDERDONE WITH FAIR SKIES.

SUNDAY...HAVE CHANCE POPS AND COOL WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN
SHOWERS AS UPPER LOW PASSES. IF BL MOISTURE IS OVERDONE THEN HIGHS MAY
BE A FEW DEGREES TOO LOW WITH MOSTLY UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES
POSSIBLE. SOME CLEARING ALSO IN THE PM WITH HEATING AND LIGHT POPCORN
SHOWERS SUGGESTED FOR LATER SHIFTS. SUNDAY NIGHT...CLEARING WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS SUGGESTING MINS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.
PATCHY FROST NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT MINS NEED TO BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES LOWER FOR CONSIDERATION OF HEADLINES. WILL PASS THIS ON AS ISSUE
FOR LATER SHIFTS. MINS SOUTH 1/3 TO 1/2 SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER
40S. OVERALL...RAIN AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS.

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NW FLOW WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF CANADIAN
AIR WEDNESDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE CONSISTENTLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S OR NEAR NORMAL OVERALL. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S WITH SOME UPPER
30S SUGGESTED FOR THURSDAY MORNING FOR LATER SHIFTS TO CONSIDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

IFR TO LOW MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAL DECREASE TO SCTRD SHOWERS
BY LATE AFTERNOON AT BRL AND POSSIBLY MLI. ISOLATED TO WDLY SCTRD
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF BRL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
EARLY EVENING. BRISK EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS AND
HIGHER GUSTS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND DECREASE SOME.
AFTER THE MORE ORGANIZED RAIN BAND PUSH NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING...EXPECT LOW CIGS/IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF
SITES ALONG WITH DRIZZLE AND FOG INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A SECONDARY
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH WILL
BRING ANOTHER UPTICK IN RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE WEST BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.    ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...12



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