Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 200821
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
321 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH MOVED INTO IOWA OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A
SHIFT TO A NORTHWEST WIND BUT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE. AT 3
AM CDT...THE SKY WAS MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. IN THE
NEAR TERM...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT A SHIFT TO A
NORTHWEST WIND...SUSTAINED AROUND 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR
TWO HIGHER WITH THE WARMER START TO THE DAY. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. NO RAIN IS
ANTICIPATED WITH EITHER FEATURE.

FOR TONIGHT...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA WITH LIGHT N/NE WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON MAINLY A DRY EXTENDED WITH THE ONLY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD BELOW NORMAL
BUT THEN TREND ABOVE NORMAL BY THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVELS WILL FEATURE DEEP
TROUGH IN THE EAST AND IN THE ROCKIES...WITH A RIDGE FROM TX TO MN.
THE DVN CWA WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY A NORTHERLY FLOW DUE TO THE
EASTERN TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST WHILE
THE TROUGH OUT WEST APPROACHES THE MIDWEST...BUT IN A WEAKENING
FASHION AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE. GFS/ECMWF INSIST ON PAINTING SOME
QPF IN OUR WESTERN CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT
FIZZLES AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE TO OUR EAST. FOR NOW WILL HAVE SMALL CHANCE POPS IN THE
WESTERN CWA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES AS FAR EAST AS THE MS RIVER.
I WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA EAST OF THE RIVER DRY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS SO BELIEVE THE MODELS ARE
OVERDOING THE QPF BUT WE SHALL SEE.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THIS LOOKS TO BE A FABULOUS PERIOD OF
FALL WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE OCTOBER. MODELS
INDICATE BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL PUSH OUR
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY
ON SUNDAY ALSO. THE CONSENSUS MODELS MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A WEAK SURFACE FRONT MOVING THROUGH IOWA WILL CAUSE LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST BY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR A PERIOD MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS






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