Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
111 FXUS63 KMKX 081950 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 250 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain showers are likely through the afternoon with a small chance of thunder - Breezy northwest winds expected on Sunday - Occasional small chances for showers and storms Tuesday through the remainder of the week && .SHORT TERM... Issued 250 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Tonight and Sunday: As the shortwave and better jet dynamics begin to move east out of the state, the last of the rain showers are starting to come to an end from the northwest to the southeast. The window for any rumbles of thunder is quickly closing as well. As the last of the rain showers begins to pull out of the area this afternoon, skies are quickly starting to clear. West central Wisconsin is already starting to see the partly cloudy skies. With the skies starting to clear a bit earlier than initially anticipated, much of southern Wisconsin will get a chance to see the sun by this evening. With the clearing and weakening winds expected tonight, there is a small chance (15-20%) that fog begins to develop tonight. Dewpoints will be on the higher side in the upper 40s to low 50s due in part to the rainfall we received earlier today. Skies will be mostly clear by tonight and are expected to be around 5 mph. Low lying areas and areas sheltered from the wind will have the best chance for any fog to develop. Sunday looks dry for southern Wisconsin. The state will be under some board cyclonic flow again which will give us some large scale ascent, however there will be a lack of available moisture. Soundings remain pretty dry which will make it hard to get clouds let alone rain. Breezy northwest winds will set up as diurnal mixing increases and the pressure gradient briefly tightens again. High pressure will begin to slowly build in from the Northern Plains Monday, which will gradually cause the winds to weaken throughout the day and will keep conditions dry. Temperatures should be near normal to just slightly below normal for both Sunday and Monday. Patterson && .LONG TERM... Issued 250 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Monday through Saturday: Ridging in place for the start of the work week will keep conditions dry and quiet for Monday and much of the day Tuesday. The rest of the extended forecast has multiple shortwaves and troughs move through the flow bring some low chance POPs into the forecast. The first chance for some low end POPs around 20-25% or less is Tuesday. A quick moving trough is expected to swing through the Northern Great Lakes and Canada late Tuesday into early Wednesday morning. The better lift will be further north which leaves southern Wisconsin more on the fringe of this system. An associated frontal boundary will potentially swing through the CWA which would bring the best potential for any forcing for some showers and a chance (roughly 20%) of some thunder. The next troughs and shortwaves to approach the Great Lakes Region will be quickly on the heels of the first bringing additional rain chances late Wednesday and Thursday through Friday. Extended guidance has discrepancies on the tracks of these shortwaves and troughs which has resulted in wide areas of low chance POPs (25% or less) for much of the state. Most of the discrepancies can be linked back to the synoptic pattern which brings more zonal flow to the Midwest. The zonal flow looks to stick around into the weekend. This pattern will also be a big promoter of a gradual warming trend with temperatures climbing into the 80s for a couple of days. && .AVIATION... Issued 250 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 IFR to VFR conditions are expected over the next couple of hours across southern Wisconsin. Ceilings around 1-2kft have moved in with the remaining rain showers across south central and southeastern Wisconsin. The last of the rain showers are moving east south east out of the forecast area. The cloud deck is starting to clear behind the last of the showers leading to partly cloudy skies. Despite the clearing, cloud decks will remain low for the next couple of hours. Clouds will eventual clear later this evening into tonight. Mostly Clear skies will remain through Sunday afternoon. There is a potential for some fog to develop tonight as skies clear and winds weaken. Low lying areas and those sheltered from the wind will have the best chances for some fog to develop. Any fog that develops could drop visibilities to 2-4 SM. Northerly winds this afternoon will weaken overnight and become northwest to west. Breezy west to northwest winds are expected Sunday afternoon. Patterson && .MARINE... Issued 250 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Across the northern half of the lake west to southwest winds persist. A frontal boundary moving across the southern half of the lake give a northerly component to the wind. Tonight light westerly winds will set up across the entire lake prior to breezy northwest winds kicking in Sunday. The tighter pressure gradient will be due to high pressure around 30.2 inches over the Northern Plains and Low pressure of 29.4 inches east of James bay. Both features will move eastward Sunday into Monday. As the high pressure builds into the state Monday night lighter winds are expected. Southerly winds are expected to pick up Tuesday behind the exciting high pressure. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed for the breeze northwest to west wind Sunday. Patterson && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee