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000
FXUS63 KMKX 110147
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
847 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

.UPDATE...
A QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD.
WE MADE AN ADJUSTMENT EARLIER TO LOWER DEWPOINTS FOR FRIDAY...
MORE IN LINE WITH TRENDS TODAY AND A SIMILAR LOOKING SOUNDING
SHOWING DEEP MIXING/STEEP LAPSE RATES AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

THE MAIN CONCERN IS WITH NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING ON FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH RH/S
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. WINDS SHOULD BE RATHER
GUSTY FOR A TIME DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. ANY PLANNED BURNING
SHOULD BE CARRIED OUT WITH EXTREME CARE AS AN UNCONTROLLED FIRE
COULD SPREAD VERY QUICKLY.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION
VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD...SIGNALING A SHIFT TOWARD A VERY
UNSETTLED PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY SUNSET...AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS
EVENING...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL QUICKLY RISE. PASSING
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT...WITH SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
ON FRIDAY...WITH GOOD MIXING OCCURRING ONCE AGAIN. WARM AIR
ADVECTION OCCURRING DURING THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. COULD SEE A FEW 70
DEGREE READINGS AS WELL. FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH SURFACE
WARM FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY BRING
SHOWERS TO THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MOISTURE IS MEAGER...BUT THERE ARE SOME STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
FOR NOW...KEPT LOW POPS FOR THIS AREA.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

A 105 KNOT 250 MB JET MAX MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN JET MAX NORTH OF LAKE HURON ON
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST. THE
MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE IS TO THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
ACROSS MUCH OF WISCONSIN SATURDAY. MODERATE WARM AIR ADVECTION IN
THE 925/850 AND 700 MB LAYERS OCCUR THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. WEAK
700 MB UPWARD MOTION MAINLY OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT
AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AS A 40 TO 45 KNOT
850 MB JET MAX MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MAINLY LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. NAM SHOWS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
ALONG THE ILLINOIS BORDER NOON SATURDAY THAT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND MOST OF SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ZERO TO 1 KM CAPE RISES TO
700 TO 1400 JOULES/KG SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NAM/GFS LOCAL CWASP
SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETER RISES TO 70 PCT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS HAVE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN SATURDAY...WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE
FAR SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

THE 250 MB JET MAX INCREASES TO 120 KNOTS ACROSS THE LAKE
SUPERIOR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW
CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST. THIS PLACES WISCONSIN IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION WITH MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE AND 700
MB UPWARD MOTION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. 925/850/700 MB LAYER BECOME
SATURATED.

A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN SATURDAY
NIGHT AND EXITS THE FAR SOUTHEAST TOWARD SUNDAY EVENING.

PREFRONTAL ZERO TO 1 KM CAPE IS AROUND 500 TO 750 JOULES/KG.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO 1.25 INCHES ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE 12Z NAM SHOWS OVER AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION.

LONG TERM...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE LEAD MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN
MONDAY.

BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF TAKES A LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SPREADS MODERATE RAIN AMOUNTS
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEAST AND
FAR SOUTH EARLY. THICKNESS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE VALUES
DROP...AND GFS SOUNDINGS COOL ENOUGH FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.

STRONG DRYING OCCURS LATER DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A SECONDARY WEAKER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY. THE
00Z ECMWF HAS A STRONGER SECONDARY TROUGH.

BOTH MODELS SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSINTUESDAY...WITH
COLD THICKNESS VALUES BRINGING ANY PRECIPITATION AS SNOW OR A
MIX.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. THICKNESS VALUES WOULD INDICATE RAIN.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS TAF SITES.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN UNTIL SUNSET...GUSTING UP TO AROUND 20
KNOTS AT TIMES. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE
SOUTHWEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SCATTERED MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.


MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD RESULT IN GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH
WAVES.

FIRE WEATHER...

DEEP MIXING BEHIND COLD FRONT WILL BRING VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA UNTIL
SUNSET...EXCEPT IN FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THESE CONDITIONS WITHIN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AND
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

DEEP MIXING WITH MILDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY WILL
BRING VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 TO 25 MPH AT TIMES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S...WITH A FEW
READINGS AROUND 70 IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXPECTED VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND
GUSTY WINDS ON FRIDAY WITHIN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AND HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HENTZ