Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 260451
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1151 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.UPDATE...


&&

.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...

Look for VFR conditions through the night. Moisture streaming
north ahead of an approaching trough of low pressure will
bring increasing chances of showers. CIGS will gradually lower to
MVFR levels Wednesday with showers and a few thunderstorms,
especially southeast. IFR cigs expected behind a cold front
Wednesday night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 853 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017)

UPDATE...

Showers will increase late tonight, with a second stronger surge
moving north from Illinois after sunrise. The second area has a
better potential of thunderstorms.

MARINE...

Increasing southeast winds will build waves to 4 to 6 feet
tonight into Wednesday evening. As a result a small craft
advisory is in effect. A strong low pressure system exiting
missouri will reach Wisconsin Wednesday. A second low will move
north along a front over the Western great lakes, which will
likely bring small craft advisory conditions from Saturday
through Sunday night.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 705 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017)

UPDATE...

AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...

Look for VFR conditions through much of the night. Moisture
streaming north ahead of an approaching trough of low pressure
will eventually bring increasing chances of showers or an isolated
thunderstorm after midnight. CIGS will gradually lower to MVFR
levels mainly around sunrise and continue through Wednesday with
showers and a few thunderstorms likely.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 308 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017)

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...Forecast confidence is medium.

A surface low pressure system will track eastern Iowa later this
evening to central Wisconsin by mid day on Wednesday. A weak short
wave ahead of the low is helping to support the narrow band of
showers/virga lifting north through southern Wisconsin this
afternoon. Once that band lifts north by 5pm, much of southern
Wisconsin should remain dry until later this evening. Thereafter,
we start to see showers associated with the low and its cold front
enter areas west of Madison, then move slowly east overnight. The
cold front will reach Madison by early afternoon on Wednesday and
Milwaukee toward early evening. So, it`s a slow mover and will
result in showers and a few thunderstorms on Wednesday. There will
be a decent mid level short wave swinging northeast over that
front Wednesday afternoon, but it looks like the bulk of that
forcing would be just east of Wisconsin.  We are outlooked for a
marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across the southeast. This
would be along and ahead of the front during peak afternoon heat.
But, this is rather low end stuff given the expected cloud cover
and weak CAPE fields. Shear is decent at 40-50kts. Wednesday will
still achieve some mild temps, but it`s all downhill from there.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...Forecast confidence is
medium.

As the low continues to lift off to the northeast Wednesday
night, the rain will gradually end from west to east, lingering
for a time in the far east Thursday morning. We dry out Thursday
night. We`ll feel the result of that cold frontal passage. Highs
on Thursday will struggle to reach the 50s.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...Forecast confidence is medium.

We see a long, slow evolution of a closed upper level system
lifting out of the southwest U.S. later in the weekend. Surface
cyclogenesis begins on Friday with troughing stretching northeast
toward the region. We could see rain chances arrive on Friday then
become more widespread by late Saturday afternoon and certainly
by Saturday night as the low kicks east/northeast with an
inverted orientation stretching well north into Wisconsin. The
upper low doesn`t lift through until Monday, so it looks cool and
wet through Monday, diminishing Monday night with lingering light
stuff possible on Tuesday. Some parts of central and northern
Wisconsin could see some wintry mix precip as the temps aloft turn
cold. But, southern Wisconsin should be okay, with only rain
expected.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...
Look for VFR conditions through at least 06z Wed. Moisture
streaming north ahead of an approaching trough of low pressure
will eventually bring increasing chances of showers or an isolated
thunderstorm after midnight. CIGS will gradually lower to MVFR
levels later tonight and continue through Wednesday with showers
and a few thunderstorms likely.

MARINE...

Persistent marginal southeast winds around 15 knots will build
waves to 3 to 5 feet tonight into Wednesday evening. Therefore, a
small craft advisory will be issued for that period. A strong low
pressure system moving through the region this weekend will likely
bring small craft advisory conditions from Saturday through Sunday
night.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM CDT Wednesday for LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

Update...Hentz
Tonight/Wednesday and Aviation/Marine...Davis
Wednesday Night through Tuesday...Davis


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