Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 191703

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1203 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.UPDATE...Have lowered some dew points where needed. Otherwise
ongoing forecast is on track.



.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...VFR mostly SKC this period. High pressure
moves away with a return southerly flow setting up into Friday.
All in all very dry airmass to remain in place.



.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 902 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017)

UPDATE...Ongoing forecast is on track. No changes needed at this


MARINE...Southerly winds will be on the increase Friday through
Saturday night ahead of an approaching cold front. So the expected
winds and resultant wave heights will likely necessitate the
issuance of a Small Craft Advisory for the weekend.


PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 559 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017)

UPDATE...The forecast is on track for today and tonight.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...VFR conditions today through Friday.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 319 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017)


Today and Tonight...Forecast Confidence is High.

A weak cold front is currently moving through far ern WI. A ridge
of high pressure will follow the front and shift ewd across srn
WI and IL today. Despite the cold advection early this morning,
temps will rebound to around 70 degrees once again. The lighter
winds today will allow a lake breeze to develop this afternoon.
Sly winds and weak warm advection will then return tonight.


Friday...Forecast confidence is high:

High pressure will bring another very pleasant day to southern
Wisconsin on Friday. Bumped temps up above model consensus once
again as model surface temps still aren`t reflective of the very
mild airmass aloft.

Saturday and Sunday...Forecast confidence is medium to high:

Low pressure and an associated cold front will approach the area
on Saturday, with models in fair agreement in the trough/front
passage late Saturday night into Sunday. This is a bit slower than
models were showing 24 hours ago. Pretty good surge of moisture
ahead of this system, with model precipitable water values rising
to around 1.50 inches. Decent forcing with this system too, so
still feel good with likely precip chances.

Given the slower progression of the system, there is increasing
confidence in a dry day Saturday. This will also result in less
clouds and milder temps, so bumped high temps up a bit. Temps get
a bit tricky Sunday, depending on the exact timing of the frontal
passage. Higher confidence in 60s in the east where the front
arrive the latest. Could be stuck in the 50s much of the day west
once the front gets through.

Monday through Wednesday...Forecast confidence is medium:

Models are still struggling to come into agreement with finer
details of the pattern for early next week. A potent trough will
approach during the day Monday, then slow down and nearly stall as
it transitions into a closed mid/upper level low.
Timing/strength/placement of resultant surface low development is
the biggest issue. Though models all have on and off rain chances
through this period, the differences between them impact
temperatures and precip amounts. Overall though, looks like a
cooler and wet first half of the week.

AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...VFR conditions today through Friday.

MARINE...Light wly winds will give way to ssely winds via a lake
breeze this afternoon. Modest sly winds will then develop for Fri
but will become breezy and gusty for Sat into Sun AM. High waves
will develop especially north of Port Washington. Thus a Small
Craft Advisory will likely be needed for the weekend.



Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Gehring
Friday THROUGH Wednesday...DDV is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.