Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 010807
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
307 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A WEAK 250/500 MB TROUGH AXIS ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN AT SUNRISE
WILL PUSH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...AS A RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO MINNESOTA TONIGHT. UPPER DIVERGENCE AND 700
MB UPWARD MOTION IS MAINLY NEUTRAL AFTER THE TROUGH EXITS. NOT
MUCH REFLECTION OF THE TROUGH AT 700 MB AND BELOW. THE 700 AND 850
MB LAYERS ARE VERY DRY...WITH THE ONLY MOISTURE NEAR 3 THSD FT AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THIS MAY PRODUCE A FEW FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS INLAND AT BEST THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE THIN CIRRUS WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE OFF THIS MORNING.

THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO WISCONSIN AND THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE PERSISTENT EAST FLOW TO CONTINUE. WINDS AT 3 THSD FT ARE
NEAR 20 KNOTS EAST AREAS...AND LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WEST AREAS.
WITH THE MIXED AREA NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN LOWER...EXPECT AFTERNOON
GUSTS JUST OVER 15 MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH.

925 MB TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A DEGREE HIGHER THAN TODAY...SO ENDED
UP WITH FORECAST HIGHS JUST A LITTLE ABOVE WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED
TODAY. NIGHT TIME A BIT TOO SHORT FOR PATCHY FROST
POTENTIAL...AND IS TOO MARGINAL TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TAKING THE SURFACE HIGH EAST OF THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A DRY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...INTO MOST OF WEDNESDAY. KEPT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DRY
ACROSS THE AREA...GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM...WITH ONSHORE WINDS KEEPING AREAS NEAR THE LAKE
COOLER.

NAM AND GFS DIFFER WITH MOISTURE IN THE AIR COLUMN FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE NAM IS MUCH MORE MOIST THAN THE GFS DURING THIS TIME. A
500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE AREA LATER ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM WOULD
SUGGEST SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS...WITH THE GFS
KEEPING THINGS DRY. SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE. FOR NOW...KEPT LOW END
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/12Z ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH FEATURES FOR THIS PERIOD.
THE GFS IS DRY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH QPF MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A
500 MB LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH AS WELL LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS A LEAD 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT TRIES TO
BRING IN SOME QPF THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAVING SIMILAR TIMING TO THE GFS FOR FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. IT MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY...WHILE
THE GFS LINGERS IT ACROSS THE AREA. IT ALSO HAS THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT FOR LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH CONSENSUS MODEL POPS AND
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. UNCERTAINTY CERTAINLY
LINGERS HERE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST PERIOD FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
WILL BE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHERE BOTH MODELS HAVE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF FEATURES SIMILAR.

THE OTHER PERIODS MAY END UP DRY IF GFS IS CORRECT. THUNDER
CHANCES ARE SLIM ON THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SO THERE MAY NOT
BE AS MUCH THUNDER IN THIS PERIOD EITHER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN MILD FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD...COOLER NEAR THE LAKE EACH
DAY WITH ONSHORE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN EXITING CIRRUS...ONLY A FEW FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS WELL INLAND.

&&

.MARINE...

A PERSISTENT EAST FLOW IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WOOD


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