Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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777
FXUS63 KMKX 240507
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1107 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

.UPDATE...GOES-R microphysics enhancement continues to show
stratus gradually thinning and breaking up across west central WI
into northeast IA and also in the northeast CWA. These areas are
moving slowly east and south. Farther upstream, mid-level clouds
over central IA into southern MN will be moving over lingering
stratus over southern WI late tonight into Wednesday morning,
possibly shaking out a few flurries. Will hold off on raising
overnight lows due to approaching partial clearing.

&&

.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...Back edge of MVFR stratus pushing slowly
southward into northeast CWA. Stratus also thinning across
northeast IA into west central WI, so wl continue improving trend
late tonight into Wed morning. A few flurries may fall late
tonight into the morning as mid-level clouds move through southern
WI.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 945 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018)

UPDATE...Clearing has expanded across east central WI and is
slowly encroaching on the far northeast CWA. Also, back edge of
low clouds over west central WI into northeast IA now making
better progress eastward, but widespread mid-high clouds farther
west over rest of western WI into MN. May scooch temps up a few
degrees in western area, but keep ongoing minimums in the east. Hence
reluctant at this point to raise late night temps due to
potential clearing. Possible a few flurries may fall late tonight
into Wednesday morning as mid-clouds seed/feed lingering low
clouds in the area.

MARINE...Will allow northern marine zones covered by Small Craft
Advisory expire at 04Z, and cancel the southern marine zones as
well. Nearshore winds have been less than 20 to 25 knots since
late afternoon per Racine Reef platform observation so wave
heights in ice free areas should be less than 5 feet.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 540 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018)

UPDATE...Main concern tonight is cloud cover. Watching erosion of
stratus to the north with increasing BINOVC as far south as the
KMTW area, extending toward KATW. Breaks likely tied to subsidence
associated with short wave ridging and DNVA. Likely this thinning
will continue south and affect parts of eastern CWA through the
evening. Western edge of stratus not showing much erosion
eastward, and with diminishing low level winds with approaching
ridge, expect low clouds to remain over western CWA tonight.
Higher mixing and lingering low level RH may result in stratus
redeveloping later tonight in those areas that partially clear.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...MVFR stratus ceilings may become few-sct for
a time in eastern areas due to increasing subsidence. However
boundary layer mixing and lingering low level RH may result in
more stratus redeveloping or filling in later tonight into
Wednesday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 240 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018)

SHORT TERM...
Stratus is likely to continue into the evening but there is
uncertainty later tonight on when and if the stratus will become
few-sct. The subsidence and drying will be relatively weak with
MOS and fcst soundings showing mixed results. Another shortwave
trough will pass on Wed with mid to high clouds in the morning but
still with the potential for stratus to linger. Went slightly
milder with lows tonight given the clouds. Highs in the upper 20s
to lower 30s on Wed with some sunshine expected in the afternoon.

LONG TERM...
Warm advection regime begins to develop over the region on
Thursday, ramping up substantially Thursday night and Friday.
Temperatures will surge to above average levels Thursday, with
readings around the 40 degree mark (give or take given lingering
snow cover). Well above average temperatures and breezy conditions
are expected Friday with temperatures around 50 degrees expected.
Depending on the extent of any lingering snow cover, we could warm
well into the 50s given abnormally warm 925/850mb temps.

Next shortwave/front moves through the region on Saturday.
Temperatures will drop back into the 40s for highs given fropa and
increased cloud coverage. Models have been trending bearish on
rainfall potential and have kept any PoPs on the low side and
confined to the southeastern half of the area.

Near/just above average temperatures round out the forecast Sunday
into early next week with lows in the teens and highs around 30.
Looking further ahead, extended range guidance continues to
indicate a roller coaster ride of temperatures with 2-3 day chunks
of above average temperatures followed by 2-3 days of colder
conditions.

AVIATION(21Z TAFS)...
Cigs late this afternoon into the evening of 1-2.5 kft. Areas of
sct010-2.5 may occur later tnt with best chances for this north of
KMSN and KMKE. Broken middle to high clouds for Wed AM but still
with a potential for stratus to linger. Brisk nwly winds will
become weak tnt.

MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory continues into the evening for lingering .
Brisk nwly winds and high waves will begin to subside late this
afternoon into the evening as low pressure moves away and high
pressure approaches.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Update...MBK
Tonight/Wednesday and Aviation/Marine...99
Wednesday Night through Tuesday...99



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