Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47

000
FXUS63 KMKX 170233
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
933 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...GOOD INSOLATION AND DRIER AIR SETTLING INTO SRN WI RESULTED
IN SOME CLEANSING OF THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY. HENCE
WOULD NOT EXPECT AS MUCH PATCHY FOG AS LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS REMAIN LIGHTER THAN LAST NIGHT THROUGH 06-07Z
/LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO 10 KTS/ AND TEMPS WL ONCE AGAIN FALL TO
AROUND OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE CROSS OVER TEMP. BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS DO INCREASE TO ABOVE 10 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HENCE THINKING
PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP IN LOW AREAS AND RIVER VALLEYS BUT
WL LIKELY NOT BE AS EXTENSIVE AS LAST NIGHT. ALSO LOWERED TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE LAKE.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...STILL EXPECT SOME LIGHT MVFR FOG TO AFFECT
SEVERAL OF THE TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE A VFR PERIOD
EXPECTED UNTIL A PERIOD OF STRATUS AFFECTS TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT
BEHIND PASSING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LIGHT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LAKE BREEZE WILL REMAIN WEAK AND SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN AFFECT MAINLY THE LAKESHORE AREAS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN BETWEEN 02Z AND 08Z THURSDAY
RESULTING IN AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND A PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS WILL SLIDE EAST INTO INDIANA
AND OHIO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CALM WINDS OVER SOUTHERN WI OVERNIGHT
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BUT LESS THAN 10 MPH BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

CALM WINDS AND A SMALL TEMP/DEWPT DEPRESSION WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
NIGHT OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA. LOW-LYING AND MARSHY AREAS
COULD HAVE PATCHY DENSE FOG.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SE CANADA...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE FROM NE-SW ACROSS THE AREA FOR WED NT. NAM AND GFS
SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRATUS CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS RATHER COMMON WITH BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS. THUS
EXPECTING A PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS LATE WED NT AND LINGERING WELL
INTO THU. RESPONDED TO THIS BY KEEPING MAX TEMPS DOWN ON THU.

INCREASING SLY WINDS WILL THEN DEVELOP LATE THU NT THROUGH FRI NT
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS S CANADA. WARM...MOIST ADVECTION
WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS. THE SURGE OF
MILDER AIR WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S ON FRI.

LONG TERM...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE AXIS OF THE LOW LEVEL JET STREAM WILL SHIFT INTO S WI ON SAT
JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ARE LIKELY WITH
THE COLD FROPA WHICH WILL MAY STILL BE OCCURRING SAT EVENING IN SE
WI. UPPER TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A SFC RIDGE NOSING INTO WI FROM CANADA. WILL GO WITH A
DRY FCST BUT IF ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE
REGION...SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

GENERALLY LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN. WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT AND DIMINISH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE TO AROUND 4 FEET FOR UP TO 6 HOURS AND THEN SUBSIDE.
THEREFORE AT THIS TIME... WE ARE NOT PLANNING ON ISSUING A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.