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000
FXUS63 KMKX 022128
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
325 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

.TONIGHT AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE - HIGH..

SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTHEAST
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE AREA INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THESE CLOUDS ARE FAIRLY TRANSPARENT.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY MID EVENING AND REMAIN SO INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS...AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA. CONSENSUS OF SHORT TERM MODELS GIVING LOWS IN THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO WEST OF THE KETTLE MORAINE RIDGE...WITH SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE.

MADISON SHOULD SET A NEW RECORD LOW FOR MARCH 3...AS THE RECORD LOW
OF -8 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT SHOULD BE BROKEN BY THE -13 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT FORECAST. MILWAUKEE SHOULD REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE ITS
RECORD LOW OF -6 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT. WIND CHILLS OF -20 TO -30
DEGREES SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 03Z TO
15Z MONDAY IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND 06Z TO 15Z MONDAY IN
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

THE ADVISORY START TIME MAY NEED TO BE MOVED UP IN SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN...AS VALUES THERE COULD BE AT CRITERIA BY 03Z MONDAY. WILL
LET EVENING SHIFT EVALUATE TRENDS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING...THEN TO THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE SOME MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL...IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE FAHRENHEIT
RANGE.

.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

NAM MORE AGGRESSIVE ON HIGHER AMFLIFIED UPSTREAM PATTERN OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA RESULTING IN SURGING BACKDOOR CDFNT SAGGING SOUTH
ACROSS SRN WI ON TUESDAY.  MEANWHILE...OTHER SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
INCLUDING GFS AND CANADIAN SHOW MUCH WEAKER PATTERN WITH ONLY WEAK
LOW LEVEL TROUGH SLIPPING INTO WISCONSIN FROM THE WEST. WL LEAN
TOWARD THIS WEAKER PATTERN.  OTHERWISE...COMBINATION OF WEAK MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SURGE OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
MOISTENS COLUMN OVER SRN WI DURING THE NIGHT.  BOTH GFS AND NAM SHOW
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DECREASING TO AROUND 10MB MONDAY
NIGHT WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASING TO 30 TO 40KTS. FOCUS ON
NORTHEAST CWA WHERE WILL BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAILING TO SCHC IN THE SOUTHWEST.

SURGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY MORNING
LEAVING BEHIND TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS SRN WI.  WILL GO
WITH DIMINISHING POPS ON TUESDAY.

.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP OVER SOUTHERN WI DURING THIS PERIOD.
GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON WEAK BURST OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION OVER BAROCLINIC ZONE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
GFS 290 THETA SURFACE SHOWS CPD LESS THAN 10 MB ONCE AGAIN WITH A
WEAK BURST OF ISENTROPIC OMEGA.  TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS REVEAL
ENTIRE COLUMN MOISTENING SO ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO CONTINUE CHANCE
POPS IN FOR THIS PERIOD.  -SN THREAT SHOULD SWEEP EAST OF THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...BUT WL KEEP TOKEN SCHC POPS
IN ON WED FOR NOW.

.EXTENDED PERIOD...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
- MEDIUM.

PREFER MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO FIRST PORTION
OF EXTENDED PERIOD.  LATEST CANADIAN SOLUTION ALSO IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH ECMWF WHILE GFS SHOWING TOO MUCH VARIABILITY.  STILL EXPECT
LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE THU/FRI
TIMEFRAME.  MORE ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THIS LOW ACROSS NORTHERN
CONUS WILL ALLOW WARMER AIR TO AT LEAST TEMPORARILY SURGE NWD INTO
SRN WI...WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.  WEAKENING SFC CDFNT/LOW PRESSURE TROUGH STILL EXPCD TO
MOVE ACROSS SRN WI BUT EWD PROGRESS HAS BEEN SLOWED DUE TO LARGE LOW
AFFECTING SOUTHEAST CONUS.  LINGERING LOW PRESSURE TROF IN THE AREA
WILL RESULT IN KEEPING LOW POPS GOING ON SATURDAY.

SOME PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN MID-LEVEL FLOW WL RESULT IN
HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROF DEVELOPING OVER ERN CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLDER TEMPS RETURNING TO WRN
GTLAKES. ALL IN ALL...WL NEED TO KEEP LOW POPS IN MOST PERIODS OF
THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE BY SUNSET.
LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA SHOULD MOVE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA BY MID EVENING...WITH CLEAR SKIES LATER TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING.

SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATER IN
THE DAY. ANY LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN.

NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT...BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A TIME MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST
LATER ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
MOST OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS REMAIN ICE COVERED...SO ANY WAVE ACTION
WILL BE LIMITED TOWARD AND OVER THE OPEN WATERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     WIZ051-052-058>060-064>066-070>072.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM CST THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     WIZ046-047-056-057-062-063-067>069.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MBK