Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29

000
FXUS63 KMKX 250217 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
917 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.UPDATE...

A few isolated showers and a thunderstorm popped up over eastern
Racine/nw Kenosha counties after main band had exited area in
region of surface frontogenesis along surface trough/cold front.
These have now pushed southeast out of the state with the
boundary. Lower dew points and cooler air overspreading southern
Wisconsin from northwest to southeast overnight. Adjusted winds to
account for a slightly earlier decoupling of surface winds than
expected. Otherwise rest of forecast on track.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

Looking for VFR conditions through the upcoming forecast period.
Some early low-level wind shear potential as surface winds have
lowered a bit sooner than expected, but winds within 2k ft of the
surface are remaining below criteria so no plans to add wind shear
but could see surface to 2k ft shear values around 20 kts in the
southeast between 06Z and 09Z Monday. Some patchy fog in low-
lying rural areas and river valleys overnight tonight but low
confidence of any fog at TAF sites.

&&

.MARINE...

Drier air moving in on westerly winds have cleared fog from the
nearshore waters. Post-frontal winds not quite as strong as
earlier expected and offshore fetch assures no small craft
advisory criteria will be met. Winds and waves will remain below
criteria through Tuesday with quiet weather.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 313 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016/

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...Forecast Confidence...High

Showers/storms will exit the southeast late this afternoon to early
evening. Could see a strong to severe storm through late afternoon,
but window of opportunity will be small with the approaching front.
Skies are then expected to clear out this evening and overnight as
high pressure builds in behind the front.

Should be a pleasant day Monday under the high, with temperatures
back toward normal values and lower dewpoints.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...Forecast Confidence...High

High pressure will dominate the region bringing quiet weather. It
will be overhead on Tuesday morning. The NAM is showing some fog in
the susceptible areas but its dewpoints look a little overdone. A
lake breeze will keep the lakeshore areas a little cooler Tuesday
and Wednesday.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

There will be thunderstorm chances throughout this time period as
series of shortwaves move across the region. Southwest flow will
bring an increase in moisture with dewpoints rising into the mid to
upper 60s Wednesday and Thursday and PWs increasing to at least 1.6
starting on Wednesday. So heavy rain is possible with any
thunderstorms. Low pressure will move across southern Wisconsin or
northern Illinois but there is significant differences in timing. It
is accompanied by a strong shortwave shown by the GFS.
Later in this period there is limited cape at times.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
Another stronger shortwave drops through late in the week so slight
chance of precip continues through Saturday. By Sunday mid level
ridging develops across the plains and starts to shift into
Wisconsin bringing dry weather.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
A few lingering MVFR ceilings should mix to VFR by late afternoon.
Showers/storms will exit the southeast late this afternoon to early
evening. Could see a strong to severe storm through late afternoon,
but window of opportunity will be small with the approaching front.

Skies will clear out this evening and overnight as high pressure
builds in behind the departing cold front. Quiet weather is then
expected Monday under the high.

MARINE...
Will see some fog at times into late afternoon until winds become
southwest. Main focus of fog near the shore is from Port Washington
northward, though fog farther from shower is possible elsewhere.

Could see a few wind gusts to 25 knots through late afternoon.

There will be a chance of storms through late afternoon, with it
turning dry by evening. Quiet weather is then expected Monday under
high pressure.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/Monday AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday...Marquardt



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.