Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
000
FXUS63 KMKX 162023
AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
323 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- The passage of a cold front this afternoon brings a polar
airmass to southern WI for tonight into Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued 322 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
Tonight through Sunday night:
The cold front has exited se WI after temps rose into the upper
50s over said region. Post frontal broken stratocumulus has
developed via cold air aloft with some virga toward central WI.
The cold front is associated with a large low pressure area
through the depth of the troposphere moving ewd across Ontario.
As it moves into srn Quebec late tnt and Sunday, shortwave
troughs will traverse through the nwly flow aloft over the
region.
Brisk nwly winds and cold advection will continue tnt, while
another shortwave trough moves across srn WI toward Sun AM into
the early afternoon. Kept the 20 percent chances for lgt snow
over ern WI but flurries will be possible to the west as well.
The incoming polar airmass will drop temps into the 20s by
sunrise Sun with high temps only in the middle to upper 30s.
Broken stratocumulus will likely remain over much of srn WI Sun
into Mon AM as the large upper trough extending from the large
low over Quebec is slow to move away.
Gehring
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued 322 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
Monday through Saturday:
Polar high pressure over the Great Plains Mon will move to the
Gulf Coast states for Mon nt-Tue. Meanwhile a weak shortwave
trough will move across WI Mon AM followed by height rises and
increasing warm advection later in the day and night. This is in
response to an organized trough of low pressure approaching from
the nrn Great Plains and Canada. Thus breezy swly winds will
briefly bring a milder airmass into srn WI for Mon nt-Tue, with
the dry cold frontal passage for Tue AM. Brisk nwly winds will
then bring a return of polar air.
From the middle of the week into the weekend the ensemble means
reorient the 500 mb flow from nwly to quasi-zonal. The warm,
moist advection associated with this change may bring a period
of light snow for late on Thu possibly into Fri. Other than mild
temps on Tue, slightly below normal temps are expected for the
week.
Gehring
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued 322 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
Broken stratocumulus of 5-7 kft will continue this afternoon
into the early evening. The clouds may become scattered this
evening into the overnight and then redevelop toward sunrise
Sunday and continue through the day. The Cigs are expected to
remain VFR. Also just slight chances for very light snow or just
flurries for Sunday.
Gehring
&&
.MARINE...
Issued 322 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
Low pressure around 29.3 inches will continue across Ontario
tonight and into Quebec on Sunday, while polar high pressure
settles into the Great Plains for Sunday night and Monday. This
pattern will maintain brisk northwest winds across Lake Michigan
this weekend into Monday morning. A Small Craft Advisory remains
in effect until 7 AM Sun from Sheboygan to Winthrop Harbor for
brisk nwly winds. The advisory may be extended as the winds
could remain elevated through the day.
Gehring
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 AM
Sunday.
&&
$$
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