Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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000
FXUS63 KMKX 290240
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
940 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

BASED ON LATEST SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM OBS...CIGS SHOULD BE MAINLY
VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS
FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

.MARINE...

KEPT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHEST
WAVES WILL BE TOWARD OPEN WATERS UNDER THE BRISK OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

MIGHT SEE A BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO IN THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA INTO
EARLY EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH TOMORROW IS CLOUD COVER.
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CAPTURING THE CURRENT CLOUD DECK VERY WELL...SO
WENT HIGHER THAN MOST MODELS WITH SKY COVER FOR TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY...WITH WINDS STILL A BIT
BREEZY...SO LOOKS LIKE A CHILLY DAY.

SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

DRY WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING THROUGH OVERNIGHT. HIGH TO MID CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL OFFSET LIGHT WINDS
TO LIMIT COOLING...HOLDING LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

MAIN ENERGY WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW...TRACK TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA. MODELS DEVELOP
BAND OF PCPN ACROSS FORECAST AREA ALONG 850 MB AND 700 MB TROUGH
AXES/BAROCLINIC ZONES...WITH SOME FORCING CONTRIBUTION FROM
DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION. CONSENSUS BLEND BRINGS CHANCE POPS
TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN CWA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE...BUT WILL
LIMIT QPF WITH DRY LAYER BELOW 750 MB NEEDING TO SATURATE BEFORE
PCPN CAN REACH THE SURFACE. HIGHS AROUND 50 PER FORECAST 925 MB
TEMPS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

STRONGER WAVE DROPS ACROSS NE WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT...HELPING TO
DIG A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...THAT
EVENTUALLY COVERS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. BY SATURDAY MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND RESULTING SURFACE TO 850 MB CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES PULLS COLD POOL DOWN ACROSS STATE
FRIDAY...WITH -9C TO -10C 850 MB TEMPS BY AFTERNOON IN
NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF LARGE POLAR HIGH BUILDING TOWARD STATE.

GFS BRINGS LIGHT PCPN ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT BUT KEEP HEAVIEST
PCPN TO THE NE OF THE CWA CLOSER TO DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW...PUSHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF FRIDAY MORNING AROUND DEEPER SURFACE LOW.
WITH A WEAKER LOW...GEM AND ECMWF LIMIT PCPN TO THE FAR EASTERN
CWA...MAINLY DUE TO LAKE-EFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS. DENDRITE GROWTH
ZONE BECOMES SATURATED FOR A TIME FRIDAY MORNING...SO SOME SNOW
MIXING WITH THE RAIN.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

GFS 1000-900 MB WINDS TURN NE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT QPF BRUSHING
THE NEAR-LAKE LAND AREAS FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTH AS FAR INLAND AS UNION
GROVE AND PADDOCK LAKE...WHILE ECMWF ONLY CLIPS WIND LAKE WITH MORE
OF A DUE NORTH FETCH. GOING WITH BLEND AND COLLABORATION...WILL
LIMIT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO A NARROW BAND ALONG THE SHORE FROM WIND
POINT SOUTH.

OTHERWISE POLAR HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S SATURDAY. DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS.

BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS COMES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
SLOW MOVING SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM A SURFACE LOW
LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM NORTH DAKOTA ACROSS ONTARIO. BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF TAKE PCPN OUT OF CWA BY TUE MORNING...WITH THE GFS KEEPING
PCPN AS CLOSE AS NE IL/NRN IN ALONG LINGERING BAROCLINIC ZONE. WILL
KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE SE TUESDAY...BUT WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED
IF LATER RUNS REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

BASED ON LATEST SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM OBS...CIGS SHOULD BE MAINLY
VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS
FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

MARINE...

KEPT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHEST
WAVES WILL BE TOWARD OPEN WATERS UNDER THE OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...REM



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