Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 112117
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
317 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWEST 4K FT SATURATING
TONIGHT IN SOUTH-CENTRAL WI BUT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD STAY
SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE WHERE THERE IS BETTER FORCING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS DAYTIME WIND CHILL VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND -5 TO 0 DEG.

.FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE AXIS OF THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER SRN WI LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...IT THEN SLIDES QUICKLY ESE SATURDAY
NIGHT. FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING LOWS MAY BE THE COLDEST OF
THIS STRETCH. ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SHOULD BE BELOW ZERO WITH
WIND CHILLS -17 TO -25 BELOW ZERO. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN SLOWLY RISE TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY AS
WE GET INTO A RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RETREATING HIGH.
WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW JUST MAKE IT INTO AREAS SOUTHWEST OF
MADISON JUST PRIOR TO 12Z IN THE RETURN FLOW WARM AIR ADVECTION.

.SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF NORTHWEST CLIPPER SHORT WAVES WILL ARRIVE
ON SUNDAY. THE SOUNDINGS SUGGEST COLUMN SATURATION WILL BE VERY
RAPID...ESPECIALLY FROM MADISON ON WEST...WITH AN EXCEPTIONALLY
DEEP DENDRITE GROWTH REGION DEVELOPING ON BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE NAM IS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE GFS
AND ECMWF IN PUSHING THE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON
SUNDAY. THIS IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF SO MUCH DRY AIR THAT WILL
NEED TO BE ERODED BEFORE ANY PRECIP REACHES THE GROUND. THE NAM IS
LIKELY ONTO THE RIGHT TREND AND WILL BLEND THE NAM WITH A
GFS/ECMWF PROGRESSION. RATIOS ARE VERY HIGH...SO THIS WILL BE A
DRY SNOW. ABOUT 1 TO 3 INCHES LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW...HIGHEST SOUTHWEST
OF MADISON...LOWER IN THE FAR EAST WHERE THE DRIER AIR WILL HELP
TO KEEP AMOUNTS A BIT LOWER.

.MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE NOISY WITH A FEW
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES CLIPPING THROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT AND SHOULDN/T HAVE MUCH IMPACT AROUND
THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE GRADUALLY WARMING TOWARD THE FREEZING
MARK BY TUESDAY.

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

WE SHOULD GET UNDER SOME QUIETER HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY...
PROBABLY EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN DRY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHWEST
OF THE STATE. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL WI LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE LOW BUT I
DONT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE IN FAR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST
WI AND WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE... A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME NORTHWEST
BY THE AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT FRIDAY AFTERNOON GUSTS UP
TO 30 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE DURING THE
EVENING TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE SATURDAY MORNING BUT HIGH WAVES
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MARQUARDT
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...DAVIS


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