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000
FXUS63 KMKX 142017
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
317 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
STRONG H2-H3 JET MAX CRUISING NEWD ON ERN SIDE OF MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS HELPING TO ENHANCE SHSN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SC AND SE
WI. THIS BAND EXTENDS SW INTO NE MO AND IS HANDLED FAIRLY WELL BY
LATEST HRRR. SO THIS WILL KEEP THE SE CORNER VULNERABLE FOR LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LOTS OF MELTING GOING ON SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY ISSUES WITH THIS. WILL CARRY HIGH POPS INTO THE
EVENING IN THE SE. LLVL RH PROGS AND MOS BOTH SUGGEST SOME
CLEARING TRYING TO MOVE IN AFTER 6Z. WINDS EXPECTED TO EASE A BIT
AS THE NIGHT GOES ON...ESP IN THE WRN CWA. SO A DECENT TEMP
DROPOFF EXPECTED WHEN ANY HOLES OPEN UP THERE.

.TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WHILE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE TO THE EAST...THERE WILL
STILL BE UPPER CYCLONIC CURVATURE INTO THE NE. BUFKIT SHOWS SOME
LINGERING STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH A SMATTERING OF
LIGHT QPF. GFS AND 4KM SPC WRF LOOK MOST AGGRESSIVE AND THIS WOULD
BE MAINLY IN THE EAST/NORTHEAST CWA. PER COORD WITH GRB HAVE LEFT
PCPN OUT OF FORECAST BUT HAVE BEEFED UP SKY COVER ESPECIALLY WITH
UPSTREAM CU FIELD ACROSS MN. ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH TEMPS ONLY
NEARING 40 AT BEST.

.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
UPPER JET MAX INCREASES TO 100 KNOTS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE
STRONGEST DIVERGENCE OCCURS JUST TO THE NORTH IN THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND STRENGTHENS WEDNESDAY. MODERATE 700 MB UPWARD MOTION
BEGINS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHWEST AREAS...WITH WEAKER
UPWARD MOTION SOUTHEAST. SATURATION OCCURS ACROSS MOST OF THE
SOUTH AT 700 MB OVERNIGHT...THAT LIFTS INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY
NOON WEDNESDAY AS A 55 KNOT 700 MB JET MAX MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN.
A STRONG 850 MB JET MAX OF 60 KNOTS APPROACHES SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY SUNRISE...BEFORE EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
WEDNESDAY.

MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION STAYS NORTH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING..BUT THE NAM DOES BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAINLY
NORTH OF A DELLS TO SHEBOYGAN LINE. THICKNESS AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
DRY AIR BLOW 800 MB...BUT MID LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER STEEP SO THAT
MAY NOT PREVENT PRECIP FROM REACHING THE GROUND IF IT IS MORE
CONVECTIVE IN NATURE. EXPECT A WINDY DAY WITH BRISK SOUTH WINDS.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AS A TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OCCURS AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH ACROSS WISCONSIN. WEAK TO MODERATE 700 MB UPWARD
MOTION MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH
VERY WEAK UPWARD MOTION SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY.

A NARROW BAND OF HIGHER 850/700 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY MOVES INTO
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN BY THURSDAY.

PRECIPITATION IS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS AS
IT MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT DIMINISHES
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE NAM NOT SHOWING ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.

.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE 12Z GFS/06Z DGEX AND 00Z ECMWF ALL SWING A RATHER SHARP
SHORTWAVE INTO WISCONSIN FRIDAY AND BRINGS A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. 850 AND THICKNESS VALUES WOULD INDICATE
SNOW.  HOWEVER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL.

.LONG TERM...

.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE LAKE MICHIGAN AREA FRIDAY EVENING
WITH A SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY. THE 12Z GFS IS STRONGER AND MORE SOUTH THAN THE 00Z
ECMWF.

THE ECMWF HAS MORE LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAN THE GFS.
BOTH MODELS BRING A LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BRINGS THE SHORTWAVE INTO WISCONSIN
SATURDAY...WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER. THE SHORTWAVE REACHES THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY.

BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BRINGS IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY...BUT THE GFS IS FASTER AND HAS JUST A LITTLE MORE QPF.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED MONDAY.



&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

STILL SOME LINGERING LGT SNOW INTO THE EVENING WITH
SLOW ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND STRONG UPPER JET ON
EASTERN SIDE OF SAID TROUGH. PLENTY OF MVFR CIGS AROUND AND
BRIEFLY LOWER VSBYS IN THE HEAVIER SHSN. EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN FAR SE WI. MOS TRENDS DON/T LOOK TOO BAD
IN THIS REGARD. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SLACKEN AS WELL AS LOW
CONTINUES TO PULL FURTHER AWAY AND GRADIENT SLACKENS. CU LIKELY TO
FILL IN FOR TUESDAY WITH STILL QUITE A BIT OF CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS. AT THIS POINT LEAVING ANY PRECIP OUT OF FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL SUPPORTIVE OF KEEPING
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IF WINDS EASE
ENOUGH...EARLY CANCELLATION CAN BE CONSIDERED BUT STILL A LOT OF
WAVE ACTION TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HENTZ