Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 220212
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
912 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

.UPDATE...

The thunderstorm complex has pushed south into Illinois, with
only Lafayette and southwest Iowa county still experiencing
thunderstorms with heavy rainfall. Lingering flooding issues will
continue for a few hours due to runoff into the small streams.
South to southwest winds should linger into early evening, with some
gusts to 20 knots or so possible. Winds should become lighter
tonight into Friday morning, as the front moves through the area.
Winds should gradually veer to the northwest to north later on
Friday, with northeast winds possible at the eastern sites later in
the day. HRRR and HRRR experimental shows no more development
tonight.

Temperatures will not fall much with the high dew points. No
change to the Heat Headlines until the new model data arrive.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

The strongest thunderstorms in the large complex has pushed south
into Illinois, with only Lafayette and southwest Iowa county still
experiencing strong thunderstorms until 11 pm.

Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected behind the complex before
some mvfr cigs/vsbys toward sunrise.

A frontal boundary will slide southward across the region Friday.
There are chances for thunderstorms with the front during this
time, but uncertainty exists with if and how widespread any storms
may be.

&&

.MARINE...

The thunderstorms have pushes south into Illinois.

Fog may occur at times across the nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan into Friday night and Saturday. May see dense fog at times,
until the dew points lower somewhat this weekend. The best shot for
dense fog will be with south to southwest winds should linger
into early evening, with some gusts to 20 knots or so possible.
Winds should become lighter tonight into Friday morning, as the
front moves through the area. Winds should gradually veer to the
northwest to north later on Friday, with northeast winds possible
at the eastern sites later in the day. periods of light winds.
Dense Fog Advisories may be needed at times into this weekend.

There is a chance for thunderstorms Friday, as a frontal boundary
slides south across the region. Some uncertainty here with if and
how widespread the storms may be.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 350 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...Forecast confidence is medium

Convection is developing to the northwest of the forecast area, near
an outflow boundary/moisture gradient. They are also supported by the
low level jet (LLJ)/moisture advection into that area, and a weak
500 mb vorticity maximum moving eastward. The storms are shifting
southeast toward the area, and may continue into the early evening
hours.

There is a severe risk with these storms, with high mean layer CAPE
and decent effective layer shear values. Storm Prediction Center
has area in a slight risk for severe storms, as well as
highlighting the area in a Mesoscale Discussion. Will need to
adjust POPs last minute for these storms into the early evening
hours.

There will be a surface to 850 mb boundary sagging southward
through the region later tonight into Friday. Not a lot of upper
support is seen over the area. However, mesoscale models are showing
spotty convection developing in eastern parts of the area later
tonight into Friday morning.

Kept slight chance to chance POPs with this boundary sliding slowly
south through the area. Large CAPE with weak to modest deep layer
shear suggests isolated severe risk, with locally heavy rainfall
possible with high precipitable water values.

Will continue the heat headlines as is for now through Friday.
Milwaukee, Racine and Kenosha Counties may have trouble reaching the
100 degree heat index threshold in some areas. Will let later shifts
evaluate the need for adjustments to the current headlines.
Convection during the day Friday may shake things up like they did
today, so there is uncertainty here.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...Forecast confidence is medium

Upper-level high pressure should remain anchored over the southern
Great Plains Saturday, with 120+ kt 250 mb jet streak over
southern Ontario Canada riding over the ridge will bring enhanced
upper-level divergence into Wisconsin. 500 mb shortwave
associated with enhanced warm air advection will set the stage for
likely showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening.
The Storm Prediction Center still has southern Wisconsin in a
Marginal risk for severe weather for Saturday.

By 21z Saturday, 21.12z guidance indicating MLCAPE values between
2000-3000 J/kg, with PWAT values between 1.5-2.0 inches. Sfc
analysis showing good agreement lingering QPF over the forecast
area overnight into Sunday morning. There could be some heavy
rainfall with these as the high PWAT values linger over the area.
40+ kt LLJ is progged to move through, with the 21.12z GFS
showing the nose of the LLJ going through southern WI. Then, cold
front boundary moves through late Sunday as indicated by drop in
925 mb temperatures from 28 C to 22-23 C during the day Monday.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...Forecast confidence is medium

Some lingering precipitation may continue across our southern
counties early Monday as another mid-level shortwave translates
just south of our area, but most of the day looks to be dry as
high pressure builds in. Temperatures return to more seasonal
values as the system departs, with highs Monday in the lower to
mid 80s.

Tuesday looks dry during the day as mid-level ridge briefly
builds in before another shortwave moves in late Tuesday into
early Wednesday.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...Forecast confidence is medium

Best forcing associated with the shortwave trough looks to be
late Wednesday. Mid-level isentropic lift looks to provide this
forcing, with decent values between -10 to -15 ubar/s. The
shortwave is progged to translate through central MN and northern
WI into Thursday, which should keep some chances of thunderstorms
in the forecast.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

Thunderstorms moving southeast into the area may affect Madison and
perhaps the eastern TAF sites into this evening. Still some
uncertainty with how long and where they will track, so will leave
thunder mention out of TAFs for now. May need mention later on if
they hold together. Could see MVFR/IFR visibilities and ceilings in
storms, along with gusty winds and hail.

Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected at TAF sites for most of
tonight into Friday across TAF sites. There may be a period of light
fog later tonight into Friday morning, with light winds and moist
airmass across the area.

A frontal boundary will slide southward across the region later
tonight into Friday. There are chances for thunderstorms with
the front during this time, but uncertainty exists with if and how
widespread any storms may be. Thus, will leave out any thunder
mention in TAFs for now.

South to southwest winds should linger into early evening, with some
gusts to 20 knots or so possible. Winds should become lighter
tonight into Friday morning, as the front moves through the area.
Winds should gradually veer to the northwest to north later on
Friday, with northeast winds possible at the eastern sites later in
the day.

MARINE...

Fog may occur at times across the nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan into Friday night and Saturday. May see dense fog at times,
until the dew points lower somewhat this weekend. The best shot for
dense fog will be with periods of light winds. Dense Fog Advisories
may be needed at times in fog may occur at times across the
nearshore waters of Lake Michigan intoSouth to southwest winds should linger into early evening, with some
gusts to 20 knots or so possible. Winds should become lighter
tonight into Friday morning, as the front moves through the area.
Winds should gradually veer to the northwest to north later on
Friday, with northeast winds possible at the eastern sites later in
the day. Friday night and Saturday. May see dense fog at times,
until the dew points lower somewhat this weekend. The best shot
for dense fog will be with periods of light winds. Dense Fog
Advisories may be needed at times into this weekend.

There is a chance for thunderstorms into Friday, as a frontal
boundary slides south across the region. Some uncertainty here
with if and how widespread the storms may be.nto this weekend.

There is a chance for thunderstorms into Friday, as a frontal
boundary slides south across the region. Some uncertainty here
with if and how widespread the storms may be.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 7 PM CDT Friday for WIZ062-067-068.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Friday for WIZ056-063>066-069>072.

LM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Hentz
TONIGHT/Friday AND AVIATION/MARINE...Wood
Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday...JTS



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