National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KMKX 040940
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
340 AM CST WED DEC 4 2013

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.

AS THE 250 MB TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. THE SOUTHWEST
UPPER JET MAX LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INCREASES TO 155 KNOTS AS IT REACHES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TONIGHT.  MOST OF THE UPPER DIVERGENCE STAYS TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

THE LEAD 500 MB SHORTWAVE REACHES NORTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT WHILE
IT STRENGTHENS.

850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TODAY BEFORE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURS LATE TONIGHT. WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION REMAINS
TODAY AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DOWNWARD MOTION OCCURS
BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT.

700 MB SATURATION OCCURS MAINLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVELS...ESPECIALLY 925 MB REMAINS SATURATED THROUGH
THIS EVENING.  850/700 MB WINDS INCREASE ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS 700 MB INCREASE TO 60 KNOTS BY MIDNIGHT.  THE 850 MB
WINDS ALSO INCREASE...ALTHOUGH THE WIND MAX IS OFF TO THE EAST BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT INCREASES AGAIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN TODAY...KEEPING THE
STRATUS FOG AND DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.  CAPE IS LIMITED SO
EXPECT MAINLY DRIZZLE AND VERY LIGHT RAIN TODAY WITH SOME SHOWERS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT.  BY THE TIME THE NAM SOUNDINGS BECOME COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW...THE MID LEVELS HAVE DRIED...SO ONLY SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES EXPECTED AFTER THE FRONT. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE
BELOW AN INVERSION AROUND 2 THSD FT SO ANY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
SHOULD BE WEST OF MADISON TOWARDS SUNRISE.

.THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BECOMING CENTERED OVER
WISCONSIN BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER TO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...ALONG WITH A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS. HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 20S THURSDAY WILL FALL TO MAINLY TEENS FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY....WITH LOWS DOWN TO 0 TO 10 FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND...THE BULK FALLING SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SFC LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO PASS BY TO THE SOUTHEAST...AS A
SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT MODELS
GENERALLY HAVE .20 TO .25 TOTAL LIQUID. WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE 20S
AND 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES IN THE 520S...WOULD LIKELY BE A
HIGHER SNOW RATIO EVENT...POSSIBLY 15-20 TO 1 RATIOS. THOUGH THERE
IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR MODELS TO CHANGE THEIR MINDS...CURRENT
SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. SOME LAKE ENHANCE
WOULD BE POSSIBLE TOO GIVEN THE COLD TEMPS AND ONSHORE WINDS.

THE SNOW WOULD WIND DOWN MONDAY MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN
MOVING INTO THE REGION INTO MID WEEK. LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...POSSIBLY THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

STILL EXPECTING LIFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN DRIZZLE AND FOG TODAY UNTIL A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW LIFTS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND INTENSIFIES
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.  THIS WILL BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT IMPROVING VSBYS AND LIFTING CIGS
TO MVFR.  MODELS STILL SHOWING A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
FRONT...WHICH WOULD BE ALL RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...CHANGING TO A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE
ENDING. DO NOT EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...

WILL KEEP DENSE FOG ADVISORY GOING AS INCREASINGLY WARM AND MOIST
AIR STREAMS OVER LAKE AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS WESTERN
WISCONSIN TODAY.  SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST/SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY NOON. THE
LOW SHOULD INTENSIFY BEFORE IT REACHES THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION
TONIGHT.  A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
LATER TONIGHT.  EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT
AS GUSTY WEST WINDS EXCEED CRITERIA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ046-047-051-052-
     056>060-062>072.

LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DDV