Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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000
FXUS63 KMKX 312043
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
343 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
STRONG NW MID LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS WITH PRIMARY SHORTWAVE OF NOTE
TRAVERSING THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR INTO LWR MI REGION TONIGHT.
NAM/ARW/NMM/HRRR ALL SHOWING SOME LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING LATER IN
THE NIGHT DUE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE/850
TROUGH. NOT MUCH SHOWING ON THIS UPSTREAM AND WITH OVERALL DRY AIRMASS
AND POOR TIMING THERMODYNAMICALLY CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT IN MUCH IF
ANYTHING EVOLVING. RAP SOUNDINGS ARE ALL VERY DRY WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ELEVATED CAPE. HOWEVER NAM/GFS AND HRRR SOUNDINGS SHOW A LITTLE
BETTER MID LEVEL MOISTENING WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE. CONSENSUS OF MOS
POPS ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WILL CARRY A A SMALL AREA OF SLGT POPS
FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN AND SRN
CWA. FROM LATER IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON SURFACE/850 RIDGING
WILL TAKE HOLD WITH A MORE RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE TO
SUPPORT A LIGHTER WIND REGIME. 925 TEMPS AVERAGE 22-23C SO EXPECTING
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT...CENTERED OVER CWA AT 12Z
SUNDAY...MOVING EAST OF AREA BY 18Z....WITH STRONGER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z SUNDAY. LOW-LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION MAX CROSSES CWA BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z SUNDAY...HOWEVER
STRONGER OMEGA TIED WITH STRONGEST FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE OVER NE WI
TO FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH THE 35-40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET MAX
AHEAD OF STRONG WAVE TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS BETTER FORCING ON THE
NOSE OF THE LLJ SHIFTS EAST AS THE AXIS OF THE LLJ DROPS SOUTH
THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT...BRUSHING THE EASTERN CWA. WILL KEEP
HIGH CHANCE POPS GOING FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH LATER SHIFTS
POSSIBLY ABLE TO RAISE WITH BETTER CLARITY FROM LATER MODEL RUNS.

SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES OVER AREA AHEAD OF SECOND...
STRONGER SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT
DIPPING INTO NRN WI BY 00Z MONDAY. PLENTY OF FORCING ALONG/AHEAD OF
850 MB TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE FRONT BUT STRONG AND DEEP CAPPING
NOTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN CWA WITH
PERSISTENT WARM AIR ADVECTION. LESS OF A CAP OVER EASTERN AREAS WITH
HIGHER PW/S. WILL HAVE LOWER CHANCE POPS IN THE MORNING FOR
DEPARTING WARM-AIR ADVECTION FORCING...AND KEEP THEM IN THE
AFTERNOON FOR INSTABILITY AND APPROACHING LOW-LEVEL FORCING WITH THE
LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

SECOND STRONGER SHORT WAVE DROPS IN SUNDAY NIGHT PUSHING LOW AND
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE EVENING BEFORE FRONT DROPS SOUTH IN BY
06Z...WITH CAP ERODING AS MID-LEVELS COOL. KEPT A COLLABORATIVE
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER 06Z...BUT LOOKS AS IF PCPN WILL BE SOUTH OF AREA
BY 06Z.

MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

DRY WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BUT WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S WITH DEEP
MIXING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW

MODELS DIFFER WITH LOCATION OF STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND HOW
FAR NORTH PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL REACH AS WAVE MOVES ALONG
STALLED BOUNDARY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MOST MODELS KEEP PCPN SOUTH
OF STATE TUESDAY AND SPLIT ON HOW FAR NORTH TO BRING COVERAGE
WEDNESDAY. WITH DRY BROAD HIGH IN PLACE OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL GO WITH CONSERVATIVE CONSENSUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY...WITH CHANCE POPS LIMITED TO THE IL BORDER. MORE
PROGRESSIVE GFS BRINGS A STRONGER LOW ACROSS OR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH ECMWF KEEPING AREA DRY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
RESULTING BLEND BRINGS SLIGHT/LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE
END OF THE EXTENDED...THOUGH NOT EVERY PERIOD WILL EVENTUALLY HAVE
PRECIPITATION. AFTER HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL INTO THE 70S FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...WNW WINDS EXPECTED TO EASE A BIT THIS EVENING
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. NAM/LATEST HRRR/ARW/NMM WANT TO GENERATE SOME
LIGHT PRECIP INTO SC WI LATE TNGT/ERLY SAT BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION
OUT OF TAF AT THIS TIME. WITH SURFACE/850 RIDGE DRAWING CLOSER ON
SATURDAY EXPECT AN OVERALL LIGHTER WIND REGIME.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS. A FEW GUSTS
MAY REACH 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS
EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...REM



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