Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 020228
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
928 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...CIRRUS FROM UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY INVADING
SOUTH CENTRAL WI. SCT-BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD AFFECT SRN WI
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. CLOUDS ALONG WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND LOW
MODIFIED RICHARDSON NUMBERS SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT FOG
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LIGHT SFC WINDS...BINOVC AND MOIST LOW LEVELS
WILL STILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND STRONGER BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING SHOULD PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER STILL EXPECT LIGHT FOG TO AFFECT TAF SITES LATE
TONIGHT...WITH VSBYS PERHAPS AS LOW AS 2-3SM. OTHW...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION
INCREASING LATER WED EVE.

&&

.MARINE...WEBCAMS SHOW IMPROVEMENT IN VSBYS ALONG THE SHEBOYGAN
AND PORT WASHINGTON SHORE. HOWEVER LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
WARM...MOIST AIR REMAINING OVER COOL LAKE MI WATERS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO GENERATE AREAS OF DENSE FOG. MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW
FARTHER SOUTH HELPED ERODE DENSE FOG EARLIER TODAY. HOWEVER
LIGHTER SFC WINDS MAY STILL ALLOW PATCHY DENSE FOG TO RETURN
FARTHER SOUTH. WEBCAMS FARTHER SOUTH SHOWING BETTER VISIBILITY
CONTINUING.

WARM...MOIST AIR LINGERS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE WEEKEND...SO
MORE BOUTS OF DENSE FOG LIKELY. ATWATER BEACH BUOY CONTINUES TO
REPORT LAKE SURFACE WATER TEMP IN THE COOL LOW 50S.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL DIMINISH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR THEN FOR AT LEAST
THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THEN
LIKELY INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES. WINDS WILL BE A BIT MORE IN THE LOWER LEVELS THAN LAST
NIGHT. BETWEEN THIS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOUDS MOVING IN...LESS
CONFIDENT IN FOG. PRETTY MOIST LOW LEVELS THOUGH...SO KEPT MENTION
OF FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...LOWS SHOULD
BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

925 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 24-26C RANGE TOMORROW...SO
WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90. CONCERNED ABOUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF MORE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAN
CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST...POSSIBLY KEEPING HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE
DEGREES. BANKING ON ENOUGH SUNSHINE FOR NOW TO MIX DOWN THOSE WARMER
TEMPS. KEPT SOME POPS GOING FOR MAINLY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS SHOULD BE IN
THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL WI WED NT AND
LINGER OVER EAST CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY SE WI FOR THU. THIS AREA
WILL ALSO BE ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK 850-700 MB
WARM...MOIST ADVECTION ZONE. PWS WILL RISE TO 1.7 INCHES AND MANY
MODELS ARE RESPONDING WITH DECENT VALUES OF QPF OVER CENTRAL WI.
THE WRF MESOMODELS DEPICT A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL WI
THAT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SEWD LATE WED NT AND PROBABLY INTO THU.
THUS INCREASED POPS TO 50 PERCENT OVER THE NRN CWA AND ERN CWA FOR
WED NT AND THU. WEAK MEAN FLOW OF 15 KTS AND NLY CORFIDI VECTORS
OF ONLY 5 KTS COMBINED WITH HIGH PWS WOULD SUGGEST HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH THE TSTORMS. RURAL AREAS CAN TAKE A LOT OF RAIN THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITHOUT FLASH FLOODING BUT A SMALL THREAT WOULD STILL EXIST
ESPECIALLY OVER URBAN AREAS.

THE SHORTWAVE MAY THEN RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRI
GIVEN THE WEAK UPPER FLOW SO WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THU NT-
FRI OVER ERN WI. INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN AND MORE CLOUDS MAY
KEEP THE TEMPS DOWN OVER THE ERN HALF OF WI FOR THU. MORE OF AN
ONSHORE FLOW ON FRI WILL ALSO KEEP SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS IN
THE FAR EAST. THE HEAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOWER 90S FOR BOTH AFTERNOONS.

LONG TERM...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

STRONGER UPPER RIDGING SHOULD KEEP SRN WI DRY FOR SAT-SUN WITH
CONTINUED VERY WARM TEMPS AND HUMIDITY. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL
THEN LIFT NEWD FROM THE WRN USA SAT NT AND TRACK NEWD TO ONTARIO
CANADA FOR LABOR DAY. THIS RESULTS IN A WEAKER COLD FRONT FOR
LABOR DAY AND ONLY CHANCES OF TSTORMS AT THIS TIME. LESS HUMIDITY
AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S ARE THEN FORECAST FOR TUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF FOG AGAIN TONIGHT...THOUGH MAYBE NOT AS
WIDESPREAD GIVEN A LITTLE MORE WIND/MIXING IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

COULD SEE SOME STORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW...THE BEST
CHANCE IN THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA.

MARINE...

LATEST WEBCAMS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW IMPROVED VISIBILITIES
SOUTH OF PORT WASHINGTON...WITH FOG LINGERING NORTH OF THERE. WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS INTO AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT...WOULD EXPECT THE FOG
TO HANG ON FOR A WHILE LONGER...SO DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTHERNMOST MARINE ZONE THROUGH TONIGHT STILL LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$
UPDATE...MBK


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