Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 150847
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
347 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SHORT TERM MODELS SHOWING HIGHS PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA. MAIN
500 MB TROUGH SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. AREA FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE 800 MB TO 700 MB LAYER
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON...HIGHER IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES.

THIS SHOULD LEAD TO BROKEN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA...WITH MORE SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT IN THE FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES. 925 MB TEMPERATURES SUGGEST COOL HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S TODAY. LAKE BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AROUND AND SOUTH OF MILWAUKEE...LOWERING TEMPERATURES
THERE.

STRONG 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S...WITH AN INVERSION JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE 850MB LOW LEVEL JET WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN WI BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM THE DELLS TO SHEBOYGAN IF THEY
BECOME CONVECTIVE IN NATURE. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR FROM THE SURFACE TO
8KFT WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIP ALOFT FROM REACHING THE GROUND.
THICKNESS AND 850MB TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS EARLY WED
MORNING. EXPECT A WINDY DAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S INLAND.

THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM IOWA TO UPPER MICHIGAN WED
NIGHT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEAST WI WED NIGHT AND
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. THE GFS IS FASTEST AND
THE ECMWF IS SLOWEST. THAT SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
RETREAT BACK INTO SOUTHEAST WI /OR POSSIBLY IL-SOUTHERN MI WITH THE
GFS/ AND HANG UP THERE THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO A SLOW MOVING UPPER
TROUGH. THE NAM AND ECMWF REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG THIS STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST WI THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL FINALLY PUSH THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OUT OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR WILL DROP INTO SOUTHERN
WI ONCE AGAIN FRI NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY
WEATHER SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

AT THIS TIME...IT IS NOT LOOKING LIKE ESPECIALLY NICE WEATHER FOR
NEXT SUNDAY. A MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTER OF
THE COUNTRY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN EASTERLY BREEZE WITH OVERCAST
SKIES AND RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN WI THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...THERE
IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AND THE FORECAST MAY CHANGE.


&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS TAF SITES. HIGH
PRESSURE PASSING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING QUIET
WEATHER. EXPECT BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON...WITH MORE OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING EAST INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK WEST TODAY...WITH A LAKE
BREEZE BRINGING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA BY
21Z TUESDAY. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT...GRADUALLY INCREASING IN MAGNITUDE.

&&

.MARINE...

CANCELLED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY...AS WINDS NEAR THE SHORE HAVE
DROPPED BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

LOW PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BRING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY...BECOMING SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH WAVES WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

THE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM OVER THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
SEVERAL AREA RIVERS OVER BANKFULL AND FLOOD STAGE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. FIVE SITES ARE ALREADY OVER FLOOD STAGE...AND MORE MAY
OCCUR IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. REFER TO OUR LOCAL AHPS PAGE FOR MORE
DETAILED INFORMATION ON AREA RIVER STAGES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC



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