Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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811 FXUS64 KTSA 230525 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1225 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 753 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 The more recent runs of the HRRR and the 18Z EC suggest an increase in storm coverage later on tonight from SE OK up into NW AR. The non-HRRR CAMs are quiet for tonight, but don`t have the shower activity that`s already popping up on radar there, and the more aggressive storms across NE TX. With plenty of elevated to near surface-based instability and deep layer shear, any storms that develop will pose a severe weather threat. Despite the more favorable near surface based moisture/instability in the lower AR River valley, weak low level shear will limit the tornado threat. Lacy && .SHORT TERM... (The rest of this afternoon ) Issued at 132 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 A surface boundary is slowly working its way south across far southeast OK. Thunderstorms, any of which could become severe, will continue to develop at times through the remainder of the day near and north of this boundary. All severe hazards will be possible near the boundary, with hail being the primary hazard north of the boundary. North of I-40, elevated storms may also pop up at times. The severe threat will be lower, but not zero, with marginally severe hail possible in any stronger storms. Areas of heavy rainfall will occur with any storms, so the Flood Watch for southeast OK and parts of west-central AR will continue through the afternoon to account for this threat. Overnight, scattered showers and storms will continue to develop at times, especially for southeast OK and northwest AR. But confidence is low on exact timing and strength as CAM guidance has been inconsistent. The overall severe threat may trend down somewhat tonight, but isolated severe storms are still possible. Lows will range from the upper 50s to mid 60s most areas. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 132 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 The same general pattern will remain locked in through Saturday with a deep trough across the northwest and a ridge in the southeast. As shortwaves periodically rotate through they will bring lift and enhanced wind shear over an exceptionally moist and unstable lower atmosphere. One such shortwave will move through Thursday. It is unclear whether there will be sufficient low level convergence and lift to support convective initiation, but the upper levels show good divergence as the area will be in the left exit region of a jet. CAM guidance is uncertain on timing and intensity of convection, but scattered thunderstorms will likely develop. A few of the storms will become severe with wind and hail being the more likely threats, though an isolated tornado may also occur. A weak boundary moves through Friday morning, and storms should continue at times through then. Presumably storm coverage will decrease somewhat behind the boundary, but with plenty of moisture and instability still in place, storm activity can`t be ruled out. The best chance for storms Friday will be over the higher terrain of eastern OK and northwest AR. Highs will be below normal Thursday, generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s, increasing to the low to mid 80s Thursday. A stronger shortwave and associated surface cold front will move in Saturday. Overall this looks to be the most likely day for widespread thunderstorms and severe weather within the forecast period. The environment will support all severe hazards within the stronger storms. Ridging builds in west of the area Sunday into early next week. With decent northwest flow and plentiful low level moisture and instability, the storm chance will not be zero, though presumably the severe weather threat should be lower than this week. Normally we see increase nocturnal MCS activity in this type of pattern, which is also increasingly common heading into June, so bumped up NBM pops a bit each day to mentionable to account for this possibility. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Coverage of showers and thunderstorms expected overnight with lowering ceilings, primarily in the MVFR category. Confidence regarding finer details remains quite low through the period, but in general, expect MVFR conditions to transition to VFR early to mid afternoon. Additional thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and this evening, though timing and extent remain very much in question. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 68 84 62 86 / 40 20 10 30 FSM 69 87 69 88 / 60 20 30 20 MLC 68 86 66 87 / 40 20 20 20 BVO 64 82 56 85 / 40 20 10 30 FYV 65 83 61 85 / 60 30 30 30 BYV 65 83 61 84 / 50 30 30 30 MKO 67 84 63 86 / 50 20 20 30 MIO 66 80 59 83 / 50 30 10 30 F10 67 85 63 86 / 40 20 20 30 HHW 68 87 67 87 / 50 10 30 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch through this evening for OKZ049-053-072>076. AR...Flood Watch through this evening for ARZ019-020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...14