Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 051050
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
550 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

ONGOING MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR VSBYS ACROSS PARTS OF NE OK AND
NW AR WILL LIFT DURING THE 14 TO 15Z TIME FRAME. AFTERNOON TSRA
CHANCES HIGHEST FOR MLC/FSM/FYV/XNA/ROG SO WILL CARRY A VCTS TO
COVER THIS POTENTIAL AS COVERAGE WILL NOT BE GREAT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A STRONGER MENTION. MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH MLC MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE LATEST DATA INDICATES THE AREA WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS WILL BE DOWN OVER THE ARKLATEX...WHERE BETTER DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE EXISTS. WILL CARRY HIGHER POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK AND
WESTERN AR FOR TODAY. COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING. EXPECT A RATHER QUIET DAY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION. RAIN/STORM CHANCES WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ON TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER
OUR AREA...BRINGING CONTINUED RAIN/STORM CHANCES THRU WEDNESDAY.

RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL PUT AN END TO RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IT DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE THE RIDGE WILL BE PARKED OVERHEAD FOR LONG HOWEVER...AS IT IS
FORECAST TO RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST IN A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN IN WEEK 2.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22



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