Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 210534
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1134 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR ceilings are expected to continue to spread across Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas overnight tonight. During the day
Sunday...gusty southerly winds along with ceilings varying from
MVFR to low VFR heights are forecast ahead of a cold front/dryline
expected to move across the CWA toward the end of the TAF period.
Rain and thunderstorm chances will also become possible during the
day with the greater potential late afternoon into Sunday evening
across Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. Behind the
front...breezy southwesterly winds and clearing conditions are
forecast.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 930 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018/

DISCUSSION...
The temperature drop tonight is about done as a south
breeze continues and clouds expand across the area in
response to Gulf moisture heading north.  Surface
dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s are streaming
north across east Texas.  Dewpoints around 60F should
reach the I-40 corridor tomorrow in advance of the
merged cold front dry line.  Winds at 850mb appear
as though they will remained somewhat veered ahead of
the front, keeping moisture rather shallow in northeast
Oklahoma.  Scattered thunderstorms are expected to
start developing late tomorrow afternoon in the deeper
moisture forecast to be across southeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas as 135kt 250mb jet approaches from the
southwest.  Development along the front maybe isolated at
best, or not happen at all until it gets into the better
moisture.

The potential instability in the return flow is the primary
limiting factor for a more substantial severe storm threat.
That being said, a fairly deep layer of 50-60 kt winds just
above the surface will enhance storm gust / severe weather
potential.  The storms should be clear of our area just
after Midnight.

Fire weather potential will be limited in our forecast area by the
arrival of the drier air near or just after sunset Sunday evening.
Fire spread potential will increase on Monday in the wake of the
maturing low pressure system.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  70  39  51 /   0  30  20  10
FSM   51  69  42  54 /  10  60  90   0
MLC   57  69  40  54 /  10  50  30   0
BVO   50  70  38  50 /  10  30  20  10
FYV   54  66  40  48 /  10  50  80  10
BYV   52  65  40  48 /  10  40  90  10
MKO   53  67  39  52 /  10  50  40   0
MIO   53  68  39  47 /  10  40  40  10
F10   53  68  40  53 /   0  40  20   0
HHW   58  68  41  57 /  10  70  50   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....20



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