000
FXUS64 KTSA 151124
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
624 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
INITIALLY OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE
SPREADING NORTHEAST AFTER 18Z. QUICK TRANSITION TO MVFR AND AT
TIMES IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH ONSET OF RAIN...SOME MVFR
CEILINGS ALSO LIKELY TO SPREAD INTO SE OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHEAST OK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS NE OK/NW AR...WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 20S NEAR THE KS/MO BORDERS AND NEAR 50F ALONG THE RED RIVER.
IMPROVED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM N THROUGH THE
MORNING...WITH AREAS OF SHOWERS EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS. SHOWERS ALONG WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM
EJECTS ACROSS NRN TX INTO SE OK. THE BEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
LATER TODAY SHOULD REMAIN FARTHER S INTO TX AHEAD OF AN
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL TO THE AREA...WITH MOST AREAS RECEIVING AROUND 1-2 INCHES
OF RAIN ALONG WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM SE OK INTO CNTRL OK
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY. COULD BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT WILL LET DAYSHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK. WHILE THE NAM
CONTINUES TO LOOK TOO COLD WITH ITS THERMAL FIELDS...REMAINDER OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT PRECIPITATION MAY MIX WITH OR
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ACROSS FAR NE OK/NW AR LATER SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION
WHICH KEEPS MOST OF THE ACCUMULATIONS FARTHER EAST ACROSS SRN
MO...BUT WE`LL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS VERY CLOSELY.

AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY BY
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH DRY...AND WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF COOLDOWN FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...14