000
FXUS64 KTSA 252311
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
611 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 25 KTS ACROSS NE OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WILL LET THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUE UNTIL 8 PM AS A FEW
SPOTS ARE JUST TOUCHING THE 105 HEAT INDEX THRESHOLD. THE HEAT
WILL BUILD SATURDAY WITH A LARGER PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SEEING
HEAT INDEX VALUES AT OR ABOVE 105. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
SUNDAY IN MANY PLACES SO WILL UPGRADE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH TO
A WARNING FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AND ISSUE A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR MANY OTHER PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND THE
ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY.

THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY STORM LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS.

MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY BEYOND AS AN UPPER TROF
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE JUST TO OUR EAST. DISTURBANCES TRAVELING
SOUTH DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC
RAIN CHANCES...WITH THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD
LOOKING LIKE THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR RAINFALL IN OUR FORECAST
AREA.

WITH THE COOL END TO THE MONTH...IT APPEARS THAT BOTH TULSA AND
FORT SMITH WILL FINISH IN THE TOP 10 FOR COOLEST JULYS ON RECORD.
TULSA WILL SEE ITS COOLEST JULY SINCE 1967 AND FORT SMITH THEIR
COOLEST SINCE THE 1970S.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77 101  78  99 /   0   0  10  20
FSM   74  97  76  97 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   73  96  75  96 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   73 101  75  98 /   0  10  10  20
FYV   69  95  72  94 /   0   0   0  20
BYV   71  96  74  94 /   0   0   0  20
MKO   72  97  75  96 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   74  97  76  95 /   0   0  10  20
F10   73  98  75  96 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   72  95  73  95 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM FRIDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ059-
     OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 8 PM SUNDAY FOR
     OKZ054-OKZ059-OKZ060.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 8 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ055-
     OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 8 PM SUNDAY FOR ARZ019-
     ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...18