Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 201718
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1218 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY 18Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MOIST AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH LIMITED
MIXING...LIKELY RESULTING IN FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS IN MANY AREAS
IN THE 09Z-14Z TIME FRAME. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A PERIOD
OF LIFR CONDITIONS IN NW ARKANSAS DURING THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN ALL AREAS AFTER 15Z.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1043 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL PV MAX
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN OK CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THIS
MORNING WITH WANING LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
CLEAR OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z WITH CLOUDS DECREASING AND LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS LEADING TO A WARM AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED POPS EARLIER
THIS MORNING TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS AND WILL LIKELY SEND ONE MORE
ONCE SHOWERS MOVE OUT. REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING...HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS OR VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS
AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KMLC. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR
THUNDER AT KTUL AND KRVS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AS ACTIVITY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY. THE MAV AND MET BOTH HIT ON IFR FOG AT KFYV AND
KXNA FOR LATE TONIGHT WILL INCLUDE AT KFYV TAF WILL DROP KXNA
INTO THE IFR CAT AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDDAY. QUIET WEATHER
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN PREVAIL FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD.

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN UPPER TROF
WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THIS SYSTEM AND WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS NEXT
WEEKEND. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...14








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