000
FXUS64 KTSA 221946
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
246 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Fairly uneventful weather is expected for most of next week, with
the main forecast concerns, including the first potential
widespread freeze of the season, accompanying a strong upper level
system late week and into the weekend.

An upper level trough currently extends across eastern Oklahoma
and far western Arkansas, with dense low cloudiness and a few
showers continuing across areas near and east of the
Oklahoma/Arkansas border. The showers should largely be east of
the forecast area in the next couple of hours, and the cloudiness
should diminish by mid to late evening.

A dry, secondary cold front will move through the region tomorrow
afternoon and evening, with a push of colder air and an increase
in northerly winds expected into Tuesday. A few of the typical
cold spots will flirt with a freeze Wednesday morning and frost
may eventually need to be put in the forecast.

Southerly winds will return Wednesday and into Thursday ahead of
the aforementioned late week trough. Afternoon temperatures may
approach 80 degrees in parts of southeast Oklahoma and west
central Arkansas by Thursday.

The latest data show a faster movement of the trough, along with
less precipitation than the previous data, especially post-
frontal. The GFS and ECMWF are in reasonable agreement on this
trend. This would keep precipitation in an all liquid form.
However, it is worth noting that while the wintry precipitation
potential with this system currently appears low, the potential
is nonzero.

Much colder air will follow the front for much of Friday and into
the weekend, with widespread freezing temperatures Saturday
morning and perhaps into Sunday morning as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   46  74  46  64 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   45  76  46  66 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   45  77  46  66 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   39  74  41  64 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   39  72  41  59 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   41  72  44  59 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   44  74  44  65 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   42  72  44  61 /   0   0   0   0
F10   46  75  45  64 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   45  78  46  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....22