596
FXUS64 KTSA 120513
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1213 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day
   through at least Monday, with potential for locally heavy
   rainfall.

 - An active weather regime continues into next week with daily thunderstorm
   chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage
towards sunrise across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas,
with a slow southeast drift to the precipitation expected during
the morning. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, and a flood
watch remains in effect for parts of northeast Oklahoma through 1
pm.

The latest model data, including the various CAM`s, are showing
considerable variability in the location of showers and storms this
afternoon, and where heavy rainfall may remain a concern. It is
possible that the current flood watch may need to be extended in
time, location, or both depending on how the situation evolves
today. High temperatures today will remain below normal, ranging
from the mid 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

A slow moving upper trough will remain over the area through at
least Monday and possibly Tuesday. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will continue through that time, with the potential
for locally heavy rainfall from time to time. The heaviest rainfall
may end up favoring the overnight and morning time frames, and
additional flood watches may be needed during the coming days.
Temperatures will remain well below normal into the first part of
next week.

Once the upper trough lifts out of the area, shower and storm
coverage will diminish for the middle to latter part of next week,
but not completely go away. Temperatures will also warm back to
closer to the seasonal averages for the latter half of the week. A
weak cold front may approach the area late in the week, but the
latest data does cast some doubt on this as upper ridging becomes
more dominant by that time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage
across the area overnight and into Saturday morning. Then, showers
and storms will continue at times through the day. Model guidance
reveals high confidence in this general outlook, but very low
confidence in exactly when and where storms will form.
Accordingly, included multiple longer duration prob30 groups in
the forecast. Most areas will see ceilings develop, but they
should generally remain at or above 3 kft except in heavy showers.
Visibility could also briefly drop but will generally remain 4 SM
or greater otherwise. Winds will be out of the south at 5-15 kts.
A few of the storms will produce locally heavy rain and severe
weather potential.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  70  83  70 /  50  50  60  30
FSM   90  73  87  73 /  70  50  70  20
MLC   88  71  85  70 /  70  60  80  30
BVO   88  69  83  68 /  40  50  50  20
FYV   86  69  84  68 /  70  50  70  20
BYV   87  69  85  69 /  70  30  70  20
MKO   86  70  83  70 /  80  50  70  30
MIO   87  69  83  69 /  40  40  60  20
F10   86  69  82  70 /  80  60  80  30
HHW   91  72  88  71 /  50  60  60  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through this afternoon for OKZ054>064.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...06