499
FXUS62 KGSP 312326
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
726 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure centered over the region will keep temperatures
slightly below normal, with dry weather persisting through Saturday.
High pressure shifts offshore Sunday with warming temperatures and
increasing moisture. A more active stretch of weather may return
early next week with daily afternoon thunderstorm chances within a
summer like pattern. Another cold front will approach the area late
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 720 PM EDT Friday...No major changes were needed this evening
as the forecast remains on track. Otherwise, cirrus are expected to
become more scattered through tonight, allowing for decent
radiational cooling. Thus. lows tonight should end up ~1 to 2
categories below climo.

A robust upper trof will continue to translate eastward and off the
Atlantic Coast while a stout upper ridge builds over the eastern
CONUS. By the end of the near-term period Saturday evening, an
embedded upper shortwave will help push the upper ridge axis further
east and over the Atlantic Coast. At the sfc, broad high pressure
will continue to slide SSE thru the period and will be moving off
the SE Coast by the end of the period. This should keep us dry with
below normal temperatures and dew points for Saturday. Relative
humidity values will likely bottom-out near critical values again
Saturday aftn mostly over the NC Piedmont, however relatively weak
winds should limit any fire danger concerns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 pm Friday: Deep layer ridging will finally have
relinquished much of its influence across our area early in the
short term, with low level moisture increasing around the western
periphery of the western Atlantic-centered anticyclone. Showers
originating from a pre-frontal environment across the TN Valley may
make a run toward the CWA as early as Sunday morning, during which
time PoPs increase to the chance category across our western areas.
The increasing moisture should support weak destabilization Sunday
afternoon, with scattered diurnal convection anticipated, especially
across the mountains, where general 40-60 PoPs are advertised. With
surface high remaining centered over the western Atlantic, S/SW flow
will support the continued increase of moisture during the latter
half of the period, with another afternoon/evening of isolated/
widely scattered convection anticipated Tuesday. Temperatures will
generally be right around normal through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 140 pm Friday: The upper air pattern will remain somewhat
nebulous during at least the first half of the medium range, with
levels of heating, moisture (and by extension, diurnal instability)
expected to return to...if not a little higher than seasonal normals
by the middle of next week. As such, this period of time will be
dominated by scattered diurnal convection (generally 30-50 PoPs) and
steadily warming temps. By late in the week, the global models are
converging toward a consensus of introducing substantial height
falls to the East...advertising a deep upper low moving into the
Great Lakes region by the end of the period. Associated frontal zone
could enhance diurnal convective chances Thursday, although
confidence in timing is such that we generally stick with
slightly-above-climo PoPs on Thursday, with a transition to
diurnal/token convective chances next Friday. Temps are forecast to
be a category or so above climo through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR and dry yet again for the 00Z TAF period.
SCT to BKN cirrus continue streaming across the western Carolinas
this evening but should gradually thin out later this evening into
Saturday morning. Cirrus will thicken up again becoming BKN late
Saturday afternoon. Winds are generally in the northern quadrant
across the terminals but have been rather variable this evening.
Winds east of the mtns are expected to gradually pick up out of the
east in the next hour or two before turning NE overnight into
daybreak Saturday. Winds east of the mtns will turn SE`ly by mid-
morning Saturday, remaining SE through the rest of the period. Winds
at KAVL should generally remain S/SE`ly through the period but may be
variable at times through daybreak Saturday. Winds should remain
light this evening, potentially becoming calm at some terminals
overnight into daybreak Saturday. Wind speeds will increase
throughout Saturday ranging from 4-8 kts.

Outlook: Shower and thunderstorm chances return Saturday night into
Sunday and will linger into next week.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...AR/JPT
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...AR