000
FXUS62 KGSP 140544
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
144 AM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...DEEP LAYER NW FLOW BETWEEN THE DEPARTING E COAST
TROUGH AXIS AND A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO
DEVELOP IN THE NW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
SE INTO THE OH VALLEY. ANY THICKER MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENTLY DELAYED TO ALLOW AT LEAST SCATTERED FROST TO FORM IN
MTN VALLEYS OF THE CURRENT FROST ADVISORY AREA. OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SE COAST TODAY...TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING MAX TEMPS AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
CATEGORIES OVER YESTERDAY.

SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG A WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...OUR REGION
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MIN TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING MORE THAN 10 DEGREES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE
WARMING TEMPERATURES AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION ON WED
AND TRANSLATES TO THE EAST COAST BY EARLY THU. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON THU. IN
REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE FORECASTING ELEVATED
CAPE >1000J WED AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN AREAS WED AFTERNOON...BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LOW LEVEL CIN SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
PREVENT ANY CONVECTIVE INTITIATION. ON THU WITH THE WEAK UPPER
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
DESTABALIZATION IN THE AFTEROON FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE SOURCES FOR TEMP FIELDS
WHICH YIELDED MAX TEMPS THU AND FRI GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S OUTSIDE
OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND NEAR 80 MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...A SUMMERLIKE PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE MEDIUM
RANGE AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THER SE STATES. A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE WILL HELP TO PRODUCE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK RIDGING IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
AREA AS A BERMUDA BUILDS WEST. THE UPSHOT OF THE FORECAST IS THAT
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DAY TO DAY CHANGES ARE EXPECTED. THE FORECAST
WILL FEATURE WARM TEMPERATURES WITH MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION
FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY. CAN`T RULE OUT A NOCTURNAL MCS OVER THE
WEEKEND...SO MAINTAINED SOME LOW END CHANCE POPS SAT NIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THAT POSSIBILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECT MAINLY FEW TO SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
FROM KHKY TO KCLT AS A WARM FRONT PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION. LIGHT
NRLY FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TURN SW LATE THIS MORNING...WITH A
STEADY 10 KT OR LESS OF S TO SW FLOW LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE AFTN AS
SFC HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE SE COAST.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. HOWEVER...SCATTERED AFTN AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY ONWARD.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...

AVL...30 1895
CLT...41 1917
GSP...41 1960

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-048>053-
     058-059-062-063.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...HG
CLIMATE...HG