127
FXUS63 KMPX 112033
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
333 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and muggy tomorrow with strong to severe thunderstorms
  expected. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are
  possible.

- Seasonable temperatures and dry weather is expected to end the
  week with precip chances returning Saturday.

- Chances for precip with warmer temperatures look to continue
  through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Rain from this morning has cleared the area as of early this
afternoon with cloud cover going with it. Rainfall amounts were
generally around 0.1-0.25" across the area. Some diurnal Cu has
popped up across central and western Minnesota, but expecting very
little in the way of redevelopment of showers and storms this
evening due to very little instability. Tomorrow will be a very
different story. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected during
the afternoon, but there are still some questions when it comes to
the timing and coverage. As mentioned in the previous discussion,
CAMs are highlighting some early morning elevated convection as a 35-
40kt LLJ noses into southwestern Minnesota. How this plays out will
likely impact tomorrow afternoon`s severe chances. That being said,
we look to recover by the afternoon with daytime heating and strong
WAA and moisture being advected in from the southwest. A shortwave
will kick through central Minnesota during the early afternoon with
a strong cold front expected to follow during the evening into the
overnight hours. Current thinking is that the earlier morning
convection will continue/restrengthen with the shortwave in the
early afternoon, with an area of strong to severe thunderstorms
across southern Minnesota into western Wisconsin. A cold front back
across the Dakotas and far western Minnesota will be the focus for
another round of storms later in the afternoon, likely further north
across central Minnesota. Ahead of this front, MLCAPE values of 1500-
2500 J/kg will build in as dew points climb into the the mid to
upper 60s. All severe modes are possible with both rounds of storms.
Hodographs look supportive of tornadoes during the later afternoon
and evening hours before storms likely grow upscale and turn to more
of a damaging wind threat.

Thursday and Friday will be cooler and drier behind the front before
precip chances ramp up again late Friday night. A cutoff low over
the southwest CONUS is expected to move into the Central Plains with
another surge of moisture streaming northward. PWs on Saturday will
surpass 1.6"-1.8", setting the stage for a heavy rain threat. Sunday
will be hot and humid as we find ourselves in the warm sector of
this system, but shower chances will be lower than on Saturday.
Continued chances for showers and storms are expected through the
first half of next week with multiple shortwaves moving along the
top of a ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

VFR at initialization for all TAF sites. Visible satellite
imagery shows the cloud shield continuing to erode to the east
with the progression of the cold front. Still a small chance of
a few showers in western WI, mainly near KEAU, that could pop
up but any development will be isolated so just used a 3hr
window of VCSH to account for it at this point. Clearing skies
expected overnight with diminishing winds (breezy W to NW winds
post-fropa this afternoon) then winds increase from the SSW
after sunrise Wednesday. Mid-level clouds will increase late
morning into early afternoon Wednesday ahead of likely RA/TSRA
development. Precip could impact TAF sites as early as 16z for
most locations but chances ramp up more significantly beyond
18z, so have included PROB30 mentions for locations with the
best potential of late morning/early afternoon convection. Later
TAFs will be able to fine tune the convective potential,
including "upping" the wording to TEMPO or prevailing.

KMSP...Fairly benign conditions expected through Wednesday
morning. Winds will continue to quickly shift from SW to WNW
during the first few hours of the 11/18z TAF, with speeds around
12G18kts. Could be a little gustier than that at times early
this afternoon before winds settle down closer to 10kts late
this afternoon. Winds to drop into the 5-8kt range overnight
while backing to SSW, then increase back to near 12G20kts by
midday. Chances increase mid-to-late afternoon for convection to
impact MSP, especially in that 21z-00z timeframe. Have
introduced the broad timeframe of 18z-00z with a PROB30 at this
point to get the prep time across that TSRA will be developing
Wednesday afternoon. Later TAFs will be able to fine tune the
thinking but opted to get the mention of CB/TS going now.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts.
SAT...RA/TSRA/MVFR likely, IFR possible. Wind SE 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...JPC