Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 191924

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
224 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

High pressure over the Midwest will slide off the
southeast this evening as southerly winds increase ahead of a
weak frontal boundary over the Dakotas. A fairly weak low level jet
develops to the southwest of our area overnight. Models were
suggesting some sort of weak short wave/convection developing to the
southwest after midnight in response to the low level jet, but
backed off, which makes sense at this point in time. Moisture is not
overly abundant. The frontal boundary will be located from the
arrowhead area to near Redwood Falls by mid morning and just west
of the Twin Cities by 2 PM. Best chances of rain and isolated
thunder will be in southeast MN later Sunday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

In the big picture, the upper pattern will transition from slight
troughing over the north central CONUS at the start of the period
to northwest flow into midweek before we see ridging build over
the center of the continent toward the end of the upcoming week.
Frontal boundary will loiter near the southern portion of the area
Sunday night through Monday, keeping a chance of
showers/thunderstorms in the forecast, with the best chance
looking to be over the southern portion of the area. However, a
northern stream shortwave trough will drop southeast into the area
Monday afternoon/evening, which will help to enhance PoPs a bit
over the remainder of the area, although the potential for any
significant precipitation looks to be near or south of I-90.
Cooler air will surge into the region later Monday night and
Tuesday and Canadian high pressure drops in from the northwest.
Cool and dry northwest upper flow then looks to prevail through at
least Wednesday night, with return flow beginning to setup on
Thursday. Better low level moisture doesn`t look like it will
return to the region until Friday night or Saturday, so any
meaningful chance for precipitation should hold off until that
time, with most guidance not bringing much in terms of warm
advection precipitation back into the area until later Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 105 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

High pressure over Chicago land area is providing sunny skies and
seasonal weather. The high pressure will slide off to the
southeast and winds will increase from the south late this
afternoon and into the evening, especially across western MN.
Winds will be relatively light from KMSP east. A weak cold front
will be located along the MN/ND border around midnight and be in
the KAXN area around 12z Sunday and then to KMKT and KMSP area by
00z Monday. There is not a whole of of moisture associated ahead
or with the front and as a result expect vcsh at best. Best
moisture convergence will be located along the MN/SD border and as
it slides east overnight toward the terminals it weakens. Expect
VFR everywhere.

VFR through the period with a few high clouds after sunset. A
possible shower at the terminal in the afternoon and would not be
surprise if the airfield was missed.

Sun night...VFR. Chance MVFR/TSRA overnight. Wind SW 5 kts.
Mon...Chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind SE 5 kts.
TUE...Chc MVFR/-TSRA early, bcmg VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts.




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