


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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181 FXUS63 KMPX 300533 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1233 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe risk has diminished for this afternoon for scattered thunderstorms that are developing. - Quieter weather expected to start the week, especially on Tuesday. - Next period of active weather looks to come at the end of next week, with a possible frontal passage for the Fourth of July. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 316 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Surface analysis and MPX radar imagery at 2pm showed a cold front stretched out from between New Ulm and Mankato, up to the Lake Minnetonka region and off toward Siren in northwest WI. We`ve seen dewpoints pool up around 70 along this boundary, with 1000-1500 j/kg of mlCAPE noted on the SPC Mesoanalysis. The wind shift along the front is very gradual, so the forcing is weak, with scattered convection expected through the afternoon across eastern MN within the plume of higher surface dewpoints. Deep shear is less than 30 kts, so we just don`t have a sufficient combination of forcing, instability, and shear to drive a severe threat. That severe threat is better to our east. The very moist and unstable airmass we had Saturday is over from eastern IA up into central WI today, which is where mlCAPE is up in the 2000-3000 j/kg range and convection is much more robust. Zooming out a bit, the main trough that has been the primary driver of the weather the last couple of days is still up across Manitoba and Saskatchewan down into eastern Montana and Wyoming. This trough will pass across the upper MS Valley Monday afternoon and will still provide us with two more opportunities for precip. First comes tonight as a shortwave is forecast to shoot out east of the trough from Nebraska into Iowa. Model spread with how much and where precip with this wave falls is still pretty large, but we could see some showers/storms come out of SoDak tonight, moving across southern MN through the morning on Monday. The other chance for precip with this trough comes Monday afternoon as the cold trough aloft moves overhead, with diurnal activity expected. CAMs today have backed off quite a bit on the coverage with diurnal activity on Monday, so we limited PoPs to 30%, with the highest PoPs still north of I-94. Tuesday, a surface high moves through and we`re still expecting a dry day. Wednesday sees a weak cold front drop down from Canada, which may have just enough forcing with existing moisture and instability to pop a few storms. Thursday sees rising heights and what is looking increasingly likely to be a dry day before heat and humidity crank up for the Fourth with an uptick in southerly winds. NBM wind forecast shows a cold front working across the upper MS Valley Friday night into Saturday. The timing of the front will be key to whether or not your fireworks display will go off without a hitch, but we are already seeing NBM with likely PoPs for Friday night, so it is looking increasing likely that you may have to include thunderstorms into your Independence Day plans. Given highs in the upper 80s and dewpoints in the lower 70s, any activity with the front will pose a severe risk as well. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1233 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 VFR with light and variable winds tonight. There is an area of showers moving from South Dakota into Minnesota that could provide for a brief period of rain and maybe at most a drop into high MVFR. Later this morning we could see a brief period of fog at EAU. During the day winds will pick up again from the northwest. There is a chance for some rain this afternoon, but generally chances are too low for inclusion in the TAFs. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts. WED...VFR. Chc TSRA/MVFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts. THU...VFR. Wind SSE 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MPG AVIATION...NDC