051
FXUS63 KUNR 110716
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
116 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Cold front will move through the region today with cooler,
 breezy, and showery weather

-Dry this weekend with temps warming back up

-Unsettled conditions return next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Thursday)
Issued at 115 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Mean NW flow aloft will continue through the period with a few
stronger waves supporting chances for showers/storms at times with
a few cool days mixed in. Strong upper trough will move southeast
today across the region, forcing a cold front through the area.
Winds will briefly gust behind the front, strongest in the lee of
the Black Hills where few gusts to around 50 mph will be possible
this morning before winds gradually come down. Plenty of elevated
moisture and resultant CAPE, which will support scattered showers
and TS, with the best chances from around the BH and east. Dry air
will then advect into the region north to south, shunting shower
chances quickly south, with rain chances ending most areas by
evening. Mostly clear tonight with light winds and dry air
supporting cool temps with lows in the 40s to lower 50s on the
plains to 30s in parts of the Black Hills. Dry this weekend with
temps warming back up into the 80s and 90s. Unsettled flow will
then return next week as another round of impulses traverse the
region with deeper moisture returning. Another stronger upper
trough will move through the region Tues, supporting a good chance
of TS along with much cooler temps by Wed when many areas on the
plains will see highs in the 60s. Things will quickly warm back up
the remainder of the week, with chances for storms at times as
moisture returns.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued At 1133 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Generally VFR conditions are expected. The exception would be
MVFR conditions in isolated showers/storms, which will be
possible throughout the TAF period. Best chances for isolated
showers and storms will be overnight across northeastern Wyoming,
and Friday afternoon for western South Dakota. A cold front will
cross the area early this morning, bringing gusty northwest winds
to the area for much of the day. Winds will begin to subside by
late afternoon.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...15