Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 200204
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
804 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 801 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ISOLD TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED OVER JACKSON COUNTY...ALONG THE TAIL END
OF A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. EXPECTED THIS ACTIVITY
TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING/TRACKING SEWD THROUGH SCNTRL SD OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS SO HAVE EXPANDED POPS FOR THAT AREA. OTHER THAN
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO SKY COVER...NOTHING ELSE CHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN ND INTO
NORTHEAST CO. LOW PRESSURE CONNECTED TO COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
MB BRINGING MODERATE GRADIENT TO NORTHWEST SD THIS AFTERNOON AND
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER CWA UNDER LEFT
ENTRANCE REGION OF 110KT JET STREAK SUPPRESSING PRECIPITATION OVER
THE CWA. THIS MAY CHANGE EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
SD AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS WY/MT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT
CHANCES WILL BE SMALL. SHRA/TSRA WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST
MT/NORTHWEST ND...BUT SHOULD STAY OUT OF CWA OVERNIGHT GIVEN LOSS
OF SOLAR INSOLATION THIS EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR
GUIDANCE.

SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH/SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA
WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS NEAR GUIDANCE...AND ABOUT 5F LOWER THAN TODAY.
VERY GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SHOULD BRING BREEZY SPOTS TO THE SD
PLAINS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY
SUNDAY...MAKING FOR A MILD AND DRY DAY. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
ABOUT A CUT-OFF LOW CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING IN THE DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW PHASES BACK INTO THE MAIN FLOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE CLEARING
OUT SKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 800 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER SCNTRL
SD...WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SAT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...JOHNSON






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