Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 242254
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
454 PM MDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT SUN AUG 24 2014

STACKED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT EWD TODAY WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPS FILTERING INTO THE CWA FROM THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. TIGHT
GRADIENT RESULTING IN 18-28 KT WINDS ACROSS THE NW SD PLAINS. MAX
TEMPS SO FAR HAVE BEEN IN THE UPPER 50S OVER PORTIONS OF NE WY/NW SD
WHERE MOST OF THE CLOUDS ARE PERSISTING GIVING THE PROXIMITY OF THE
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. ELSEWHERE TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO UPPER 70S.

AUTUMN LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS UPPER LOW
SLOWLY SLIDES NE INTO CANADA. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH
BREEZY WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE NW SD PLAINS. AN UPPER WAVE IS
PROGGED TO CROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SE SD
MONDAY. THIS MAY BRING A FEW ELEVATED TSRA TO SCNTRL SD THROUGH THE
DAY. DROPPED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY...MORE OVER NE WY/NW SD SINCE IT
LOOKS LIKE AIRMASS IS COLDER THAN EXPECTED. A SECONDARY UPPER LOW IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT BASIN LATER MONDAY WITH ACTIVE SW
FLOW RESTRENGTHENING MONDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF WAVES WILL CROSS THE
AREA BRINGING CHANCES OF ELEVATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATER
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT SUN AUG 24 2014

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR MID WEEK...WITH DIGGING UPPER TROF
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. GFS/ECMWF/GEM SHOW LOW CUTTING OFF
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT
IN TRACK AND SLOWER TIMING...BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TRACKS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 451 PM MDT SUN AUG 24 2014

ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND LCL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THIS
EVENING...MAINLY NEAR THE MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA BORDERS. MVFR
CIGS WILL SLIP SOUTHWARD TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND MAY PERSIST INTO LATE MORNING MONDAY
BEFORE DISSIPATING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...JOHNSON






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