Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 280238
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
838 PM MDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 829 PM MDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Minor 700hpa wave shearing out between systems responsible for
mid/high clouds over cwa conts to weaken/drift east with slow
clearing from the west. Weak sfc trof has passed through wrn cwa
with kKGCC winds from the nw and dwpts in the 30s while SD obs
have dwpts in the 50s to lower 60s. Things still look to be quiet
overnight with ptcloudy skies and lows near climatological norms.
No updates needed to inherited forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Sunday Night)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southeast CO,
with surface trough stretching north and west across eastern WY
into MT. Upper level analysis shows trough axis over the eastern
Dakotas. Weak ridging is in place over the Rockies, with an upper
low over the southwest US. Skies are mainly sunny, with some high
clouds passing across northern and western portions of the cwa.
Temps are currently in the mid 70s to mid 80s.

Quiet weather is expected through the rest of the weekend as dry
westerly flow aloft remains over the region. High clouds will
continue to pass over the region tonight as temps drop into the mid
50s to mid 60s by morning, warmest over south central SD. Winds will
be south to southeast, perhaps a bit breezy at times overnight from
the Pine Ridge through south central SD. Sunday will be a very warm
and dry day with highs in the upper 80s and 90s across the plains,
80s over the Black Hills. South to southwest winds will bring
drier air and low afternoon humidities across most of the area. A
weak cold front will slide slowly south across the area Sunday
night into Monday. With dry airmass in place, not expecting any
pcpn at this time for Sunday night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 27 2016

An upper level ridge will dominate the weather next week with
above average temperatures. Thunderstorm chances will be minimal
through mid week. The upper ridge axis will slide east of the
region late in the week...with southwest flow returning and
bringing slightly better chances for storms.

Very dry afternoon minimum relative humidities are expected most
days with gusty winds possible at times. This will be something to
watch given subjective pattern recognition for fire weather
concerns, especially over northeast Wyoming where driest air is
expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued At 528 PM MDT Sat Aug 27 2016

VFR conds are expected through the valid terminal
forecast period. A dry cold front will turn the winds to NW-N
toward the end of the fcst period...but little impact is expected
with respect to cigs or vsbys.


&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Update...Hintz
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...Hintz


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