Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 310439
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1039 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 721 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO RACE THROUGH ERN MT/NRN WY. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY HOLD TOGETHER AS IT SHIFTS INTO NERN WY/NWRN
SD...SUPPORTED BY LLJ/THETA-E ADVECTION AND SOME ELEVATED
CAPE...AS WELL AS BOTH THE HRRR/RAP. HAVE BOOSTED POPS FOR THIS
AREA AND ALSO SHIFTED POPS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS WRN SD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...WITH TROF ACROSS MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO WESTERN MONTANA. SHORTWAVE CROSSES MONTANA OVERNIGHT...AND
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. INCREASING
850-700MB THETA-E ADVECTION...MAINLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
OVERNIGHT. BEST LIFT SLIPS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
MORNING. FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS RESULTS IN
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND BLACK
HILLS FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES A TREND OF LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...WILL STILL BE AROUND 10F WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY...ALLOWING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO THE AREA.
A WEAK WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE RIDGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG OVER WESTERN SD...SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH BETTER SHEAR WILL BE
EAST OF THE CWA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A WESTERN TROUGH REDEVELOPS AND
UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY. HIGHS
NEXT WEEK WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES...WARMEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL TRACK FROM NERN WY THROUGH WRN SD OVERNIGHT
AND CREATE AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
AS IT MOVES INTO CNTRL SD SUNDAY MRNG. TSRA WILL REDEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTN ACRS NERN WY AND THE BLKHLS...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER
PCPN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...JOHNSON



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