Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 032111

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
211 PM MST Sat Dec 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Sunday Night)
Issued at 209 PM MST Sat Dec 3 2016

Upper low continues to spin over the Gulf of California, with
split trough moving through the central CONUS. Surface trough axis
is pushing through the CWA. Low clouds have shifted into eastern
SD, and another band of clouds is moving in from the northwest.
Radar indicates a few light echoes over parts of western SD and
some showers upstream over MT. With a report of light snow in
Gillette, have expanded pops. Westerly winds are becoming breezy,
and temperatures are rising into the 30s.

Breezy westerly winds will continue tonight behind the trough.
Isolated showers will diminish this evening, with minimal
accumulation. Under mostly cloudy skies, lows will be in the 20s.

Mild weather will continue Sunday as a weak upper trough passes over
the northern plains. Surface winds will become southwesterly ahead
of an approaching trough, and temperatures will warm into the mid
30s and 40s. The next upper trough will begin moving into the region
Sunday night, bringing chances for snow after midnight across
northwestern SD, northeastern WY, and the Black Hills.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Through Saturday)
Issued at 209 PM MST Sat Dec 3 2016

An Arctic cold front will plunge into the forecast area
on Monday as an upper trough drops southward out of western Canada.
Gusty northwest winds will occur on Monday with temperatures falling
through the afternoon. Light -SN or flurries are expected on Mon/Mon
night as the colder air moves in, however snow accumulations look to
be minor. The main result will be temperatures 20-30F colder than
the average for this time of year with high temperatures only
reaching the single digits above zero by Wednesday. An upper ridge
will build to the west on Thursday, bringing slightly warmer
temperatures to northeastern Wyoming and parts of far southwestern
South Dakota. The warm advection will continue on Friday with high
temperatures in some parts of northeastern Wyoming and
southwestern SD expected to rise above the freezing mark on Friday
aftn. Due to easterly sfc winds, relatively cold air will remain
on the plains of western and central SD on Friday. The gradual
west to east warm-up will continue on Saturday as the cold air
gradually moves off to the east.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued At 209 PM MST Sat Dec 3 2016

VFR conditions expected most areas through the forecast
period. Local MVFR CIGS/VSBYS possible this afternoon/tonight across
parts of far northeastern Wyoming, the northern Black Hills and also
parts of northwestern South Dakota with -SHSNRA possible this
afternoon/early evening.




SHORT TERM...Pojorlie
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