Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 012019
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
219 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS NW FLOW ALOFT...WITH COMPACT EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS SWRN ND. A MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE IS NOTED OVER
FAR SRN ALTA/SASK. AT THE SFC...NLY WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS EARLY THIS AFTN ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. SMOKE FROM CNDN WILDFIRES IS
COVERING MUCH OF THE REGION.

TONIGHT...SOME CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTN/EVE POSSIBLE ACROSS NWRN
SD WITH SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SWRN ND...BUT COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH BEST ENERGY REMAINING NORTH/EAST OF THE
CWFA. ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
ELSE LATE THIS AFTN/EVE GIVEN WEAK CYCLONIC NW FLOW ALOFT. LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY LIMITED. HOWEVER...SHEAR IS
SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS SHOULD ANYTHING DEVELOP. MORE
WDSPRD CONVECTION EXPECTED LATER THIS EVE/OVERNIGHT AS MORE ROBUST
SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE CWFA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY NOT BE
SEVERE GIVEN WEAKER SHEAR ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL BL.

THURSDAY...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO OUR SE. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN WITH
CONTINUED CYCLONIC NW FLOW...AND CONVERGENCE IN THE CNTRL/SRN
BLKHLS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN TERMS OF SVR STORMS. THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGESTED TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR EVEN A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WARM AND MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE BLACK HILLS AREA.
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO ROTATE AROUND A CANADIAN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT...BRINGING MORE
WIDESPREAD AND BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR
ZONAL...WHICH COULD BRING WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THIS TIME. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES
TO MVFR IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND
NORTH OF THE BLACK HILLS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA... MAINLY NORTHEAST WY...WITH BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26



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