Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KUNR 240925
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
325 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE COMPLEX UPPER TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT THROUGH THE PLAINS. AN UPPER LOW WAS
NOTED OVER ERN UT/WRN CO WITH JET STREAK LIFTING NWD THROUGH FAR
ERN CO. AT THE SFC...LOW WAS DEEPENING OVER FAR NRN CO/SERN WY.

TODAY...JET STREAK WILL NOSE INTO WRN SD THIS MRNG WITH RAIN
BECOMING MORE WDSPRD AND HEAVIER FROM NERN WY THROUGH SWRN SD.
THIS BAND OF HEAVIER PCPN WILL SLOWLY LIFT NWD THROUGH THE
DAY...HEAVIEST ACROSS OUR WRN TWO/THIRDS ZONES. DEEP CONVECTION
WILL BE LIMITED TODAY DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW CLOUD COVER...BUT IF ANY
CLEARING TAKES PLACE IN OUR FAR SRN ZONES NEAR THE NEB BORDER A
FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTN HOURS. IN
GENERAL...EXPECTING 0.50-0.75 INCHES IN NERN WY AND WRN SD...AND
AROUND 0.25 IN OUR ERN ZONES TODAY.

TONIGHT...BETTER CHANCES FOR WDSPRD PCPN IN OUR NRN ZONES TONIGHT
AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO ERN WY/WRN SD...WITH SOME DRY SLOTTING
LIMITING PCPN SOMEWHAT IN OUR SRN ZONES.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW/TROF SLOWLY SHIFTS INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS WITH PCPN
CHANCES GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR DEEP CONVECTION ON MONDAY AGAIN LOOK RATHER SLIM GIVEN
EXPECTED WDSPRD LOW CLOUDS ACRS THE CWFA.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN
PLACE...WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS IN MOST AREAS FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS/VSBY WITH RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LIFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND
AROUND THE BLACK HILLS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WDSPRD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS NERN WY AND WRN
SD WITH MANY AREAS RECEIVING NEAR AN INCH OF PCPN...WITH LOCALIZED
HEAVIER AMOUNTS. RIVERS AND CREEKS ARE RUNNING HIGH FROM THE
RECENT STORMS... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND
SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY CAUSE MORE
FLOODING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THESE AREAS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR SDZ024>031-041-042-
     072>074.

WY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR WYZ055-057.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15
HYDROLOGY...JOHNSON



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.