Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 312042

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
242 PM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 228 PM MDT Tue May 31 2016

20Z analysis shows low pressure stacked over northeastern north
dakota with a tight sfc pressure gradient on the west side of the
low. The pressure gradient and cold advection are combining to
produce very windy conditions across much of the forecast area
this afternoon. Diurnal sfc heating and cold advection aloft have
decreased the stability enough for some showers to form over
parts of northeastern Wyoming and northwestern South Dakota. As
surface temperatures decrease this evening, the stability will
increase and the showers will gradually end...lingering longest
over far northwestern South Dakota. The winds will gradually
decrease this evening and the cloud cover will also gradually
diminish overnight. With the cooler air in place and the
decreasing winds and clouds, temperatures will be colder than
average tonight...falling into the upper 30s across parts of
northeastern Wyoming. Some areas of the Black Hills may see
temperatures fall below the freezing mark overnight.

Weak ridging will develop to the west of the forecast area on
Wednesday as the low pressure system departs to the east. At the
surface, high pressure will settle into the Northern Plains.
Wednesday will be mostly sunny, with highs in the mid 60s to mid
70s, with some breezy winds possible over the SD plains. Lows
Wednesday night will be in the 40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Through Tuesday)
Issued at 228 PM MDT Tue May 31 2016

A clipper system will bring a small chance of shra/tsra
for thursday aftn/eve...followed by dry and breezy conditions on
Friday. An upper level ridge building over the wrn CONUS will then
bring generally dry conditions through the weekend into early next
week. Temps will be near to above average through much of the


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued At 228 PM MDT Tue May 31 2016

Gusty northwest winds will diminish this evening, with VFR
conditions expected through Wednesday morning. Local MVFR ceilings
will be possible across higher terrain through this evening.


.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for SDZ001-002-012>014-



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