Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KUNR 212314
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
514 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SLOWLY MOVING EAST. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SHIFT EAST IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NV
MOVING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. COULD BE A FEW BREEZY SPOTS OVER THE
FAVORED NORTHEAST WY/HILLS LOCATIONS GIVEN PRESSURE FALLS/WARM AIR
ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WY WITH LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
IT FROM MT INTO WESTERN NE. LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL
EVENTUALLY CREATE SOME CAPE OVER THE AREA WITH A FEW SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST TO THE EAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BREEZY
SPOTS AHEAD OF TROUGH LIKELY GIVEN TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DOWNPLAY THE PRECIPITATION/MOISTURE
WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY
GIVEN NOTICEABLY WARMER 850-700MB THERMAL PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...AND THEN
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES EAST. DRIER AIR WILL
RETURN WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS...AND HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. THE ECM AND GFS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A SECONDARY UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND RETROGRADING
BACK OVER THE GREAT PLAINS...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK OVER NEB/KS. WILL LEAVE OUT POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS IS PROGGED TO REACH
THE HIGH PLAINS BY NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 512 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLD TO SCT
-SHRA/-TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN WY AND SWRN SD
MONDAY MORNING...SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY AFTN/EVE. LCL MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER PRECIP. WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...55
AVIATION...10






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.