Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 032320
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
520 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

1930Z WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS REVEALS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WEST OF
THE CWA...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WAS MAINLY NORTHERLY...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IS REVEALING
A CU FIELD WHERE LEE-SIDE CONVERGENCE HAS TAKEN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LIGHT ECHOES
ON RADAR LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HILLS...BUT WITH
VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE AND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL BE
DIFFICULT FOR ANY RAIN TO REACH THE SURFACE.

WESTERN CONUS RIDGE SLOWLY SLIDES TOWARD THE CWA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGHS BEING ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER ON
WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO TODAY. SOME MODELS HINT AT VERY
MEAGER...SHALLOW INSTABILITY PROFILES OF 250J/KG-500J/KG OVER THE
BLACK HILLS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WE COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS DUE TO LEE-SIDE CONVERGENCE FROM SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER WARM AND MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. A
BROAD UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS LATE
THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SETTING UP A REX BLOCK. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. THE LOW WILL
PHASE BACK INTO THE MAIN FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...PUSHING NEWD INTO
THE REGION. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO MOVE IN ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 519 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...JC



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