Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 162044
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
244 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE UPPER RIDGE
CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE WILL
BRING ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN AVERAGE...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS
CLOSEST TO THE THERMAL AXIS OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND FAR
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. LOWS AT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER PLAINS THURSDAY...FOR OUR WARMEST DAY
OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ON THE PLAINS. RIDGE
FLATTENS FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S.
WHILE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE LOW...SO THUNDER NOT LIKELY DURING THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...BUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE WARMER AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN QUICKLY AND CLEARS SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROF...WITH THE GFS SHOWING DEEPER TROF AND
STRONGER UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S...GIVING A MORE
CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW OVER FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD BE
COOLER THAN ECMWF ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL...BUT STILL PLEASANT. ECMWF POSITION OF THE CLOSED LOW
OVER GREAT BASIN NEXT WEEK COULD RESULT IN SOME PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES TONITE AND WED. SFC WNDS
WL BE LGT AS A WEAK LEE TROF REMAINS OVER ERN MT-WRN SD-WRN NE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...55
AVIATION...55





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