Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 260933
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
333 AM MDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Saturday Night)
Issued at 333 AM MDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Water vapor imagery shows an upper trough across the wrn CONUS with
SW flow ahead of the trough extending from the cntrl Rockies to the
Dakotas and upper Midwest. A shortwave is crossing the area is
currently pushing into the CWA. KUDX radar shows showers and storms
associated with this wave across the BH area into the I-90 corridor
toward cntrl SD. These showers will continue E/NE early this morning
as the wave continues to push across the area...exiting the ern CWA
border by 18z except continuing through scntrl SD through the aftn.
The main trough axis will cross WY today and move into the CWA late
this aftn/evng. Additional storms are expected to develop ahead of
this approaching wave during the aftn hours across ne WY into the
BH. Models continue to show decent bulk shear...and marginal
instability of 500-1000 J/KG. Should be enough to be produce some
strong to severe storms...but atmosphere still seems to be lacking
for a more widespread severe event. Cloud cover will limit highs to
the upper 60s to upper 70s today. After tonight`s precip pushes east
of the CWA...drier and warmer air will move into the region for
Saturday. Clouds will decrease from west to east becoming mostly
sunny by the aftn. Highs will reach the upper 70s to mid 80s across
the plains...and 70s across the BH. Mostly clear skies and lows in
the 50s are expected Sat night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Through Thursday)
Issued at 333 AM MDT Fri Aug 26 2016

An upper level ridge of high pressure will quickly rebuild across
the central and western US through the long term period. This will
bring dry conditions and warm temperatures. High temperatures
Sunday through Friday will be above average, with highs in the 80s
and 90s. As the holiday weekend approaches, the chance for
thunderstorms will also increase, as well as the threat for severe
weather.

This type of weather pattern may lead to an increased fire risk
early next week, due to low minimum relative humidity values, poor
overnight recovery, warm temperatures, and gusty winds; especially
across northeastern Wyoming.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued At 333 AM MDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue this morning,
with the best swath of rain from the central Black Hills toward
north-central SD through midday today. Some MVFR/IFR CIGS are
expected over the Black Hills with this system, along with an area
of MVFR CIGS extending into west central SD this morning and early
afternoon. Only patchy MVFR CIGS are possible over northeastern
WY. Conditions should improve this afternoon, but scattered
thunderstorms are expected after 21z across northeastern WY and
far western SD, with a few strong to severe storms possible.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...MLS



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