Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 310126
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
726 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 721 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO RACE THROUGH ERN MT/NRN WY. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY HOLD TOGETHER AS IT SHIFTS INTO NERN WY/NWRN
SD...SUPPORTED BY LLJ/THETA-E ADVECTION AND SOME ELEVATED
CAPE...AS WELL AS BOTH THE HRRR/RAP. HAVE BOOSTED POPS FOR THIS
AREA AND ALSO SHIFTED POPS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS WRN SD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...WITH TROF ACROSS MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO WESTERN MONTANA. SHORTWAVE CROSSES MONTANA OVERNIGHT...AND
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. INCREASING
850-700MB THETA-E ADVECTION...MAINLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
OVERNIGHT. BEST LIFT SLIPS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
MORNING. FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS RESULTS IN
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND BLACK
HILLS FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES A TREND OF LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...WILL STILL BE AROUND 10F WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY...ALLOWING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO THE AREA.
A WEAK WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE RIDGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG OVER WESTERN SD...SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH BETTER SHEAR WILL BE
EAST OF THE CWA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A WESTERN TROUGH REDEVELOPS AND
UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY. HIGHS
NEXT WEEK WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES...WARMEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE
WY THROUGH NW SD TONIGHT INTO SUN MRNG. TSRA ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
BLKHLS AREA AND NE WY SUN AFTN. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR
PRECIP. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...JOHNSON



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