Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 232007
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
207 PM MDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Friday Night)
Issued at 140 PM MDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Water vapor shows upper trof invof of the Rockies, with jet streak
rounding the base of the trof helping close off a low near the
Four Corners. At the surface, low continues to deepen over nern
CO with inverted trof extending through swrn into ncntrl SD. -Shra
stretch from nern WY through nwrn SD, with additional -shra with a
few -tsra developing over ern WY.

-Shra will continue to develop and expand ewd across the cwfa this
aftn/evening with jet energy overhead. Best chance for isold
-tsra will extend from the srn Blkhls ewd across srn SD closer to
the Neb border near and east of the inverted sfc trof where some
minimal cape exists. Pcpn should end from northwest to southeast
overnight, but will continue through at least Friday morning over
scntrl SD as upper low shifts into the cntrl plains. Temp
profiles suggest some snow possible in parts of nern WY and the
Blkhls overnight tonight but accums should be minimal.

Transitory ridge will cross the nrn plains with dry and mild
conditions and breezy NW winds (pcpn in scntrl SD will gradually
end by afternoon).

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Through Thursday)
Issued at 140 PM MDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Progressive zonal flow expected for much of the extended period,
with upper waves/chances of pcpn crossing the region about every
day. First wave arrives late Saturday/Sunday, with the next wave
in the late Monday/Tuesday time frame. Best energy with these
waves expected to remain south of the region so significant pcpn
not likely. Temps will mostly be above average through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Friday)
Issued At 140 PM MDT Thu Mar 23 2017

MVFR/IFR cigs due to -shra expected to continue spreading from
nern WY through far wrn SD this afternoon, then across cntrl SD
this evening. Isolated thunderstorms possible over the srn Blkhls
and across srn SD late this afternoon and evening. As the
precipitation shifts southward tonight, rain will change over to
snow for the Blkhls with local IFR visibility. Pcpn will end from
west to east late tonight, although it will continue across scntrl
SD through midday Friday.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Johnson
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...Johnson



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