Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 141801
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1101 AM MST Tue Nov 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Monday)
Issued at 225 AM MST Tue Nov 14 2017

09z surface analysis showed low over southeast MT with modest
pressure falls across the northern Plains ahead of cold front
pushing across central MT. Breezy spots noted across portions of
the Black Hills as a result. Water vapour had shortwave trough
across SK into central MT.

Today and tonight, shortwave trough will push cold front through the
CWA. Ahead of it across southwest into central SD, temperatures will
reach the lower to mid 60s with 50s to the northwest. Breezy spots
over the Black Hills will be replaced by breezy/locally windy
spots on the opens plains this afternoon, persisting into tonight
near the Black Hills as pressure rise bubble squeezes through.
Narrow band of 850-700mb post frontal frontogenesis and moisture
may support a few showers this afternoon in the north so have
added to forecast.

Wednesday, cooler temperatures expected as upper ridge builds to our
west.

Thursday, upper/thermal ridge peak over the CWA with decent gradient
and robust warm air advection. Should be a nice breezy, warm (for
November) day.

Friday, a cold front moves through bringing noticeably cooler
weather for the weekend. Guidance sporting pops over southern 2/3rds
of CWA with minor snow accumulations over the Black Hills possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Wednesday)
Issued At 1101 AM MST Tue Nov 14 2017

A weak cold front will cross the area this afternoon,
bringing breezy conditions to much of the plains. Isolated rain
showers and local MVFR conditions are possible this afternoon and
early evening across far northeast WY and northwest SD. Clearing
skies are expected overnight into Wednesday morning.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Helgeson
AVIATION...26



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