Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 121709
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1109 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1103 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

Updated for 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

Northwest winds emanating from a 1040mb high over MT/ND/Saskatchewan
has brought in a reinforcing shot of arctic air for today. 925mb
temps are in a similar territory to what we saw back on Friday
(2/9), which means its back to highs a few degrees on either side of
10. Climatology says it should be 26 in St. Cloud and 28 at MSP/Eau
Claire, so we will fall woefully short of our normal highs once
again, with highs today actually running pretty close to our normal
lows.

Water Vapor imagery shows a fairly strong wave working across the
Rockies this morning, with it`s moisture field working out across
WY/CO. Upstream of this wave though there is another strong ridge
building up into the Gulf of Alaska, which will cause this feature
to become cut-off from the main flow. Some energy from this wave
will get pulled out across the Plains, though really it only looks
to result in an increase in cloud cover for tonight. GEFS precip
probs have come down and shifted west for tonight, with the
NAMnest/ARW/NSSLwrf having forecasts that would fall in line with
the GEFs probs, so used a blend of these models to run a fast moving
batch of 30-50 PoPs from west central up into central MN after
midnight tonight. There`s really nothing impressive about the
forcing coming in, with weak isentropic upglide noted and limited
convergence on any sort of feature from h85 and below, so still not
convinced we`ll see any precip at all out of this, with plenty of
models continuing to show it being dry. At the very least, the cloud
cover combined with increasing southwest winds will keep
temperatures tonight from dropping off much from our highs this
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 320 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

A temperature roller coaster is expected during the long term
forecast period, along with a deficit of any major weather-makers.

Tuesday we see a return to southerly flow as the surface ridge
works east of the area. Temperatures will rebound to near normal
values, with highs in the mid to upper 20s.

Even milder temperatures are expected Tuesday night and Wednesday
as the low level flow shifts to southwest as a surface trough
approaches. In this type of regime there is always a concern for
stratus and fog development to hinder diurnal warming somewhat.
Given winds will be west/southwest (vs east/southeast), this
threat is somewhat lower. Therefore the odds of sunshine and highs in
the 40s are looking fairly good for Wednesday.

Wednesday night and Thursday the front passes, along with weak
lift associated with shortwave energy. Moisture is pretty scarce,
but could see light snow with minor accumulations (under 0.5 inch)
during that time frame.

Friday we get a brief glance of colder air, with highs returning
to below normal values for mid February. The weekend looks to warm
right back up, however, as the next trough approaches. Highs look
to be in the 30s and possibly even 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1103 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

Quiet period ahead with VFR conditions, and the focus being the
wind direction change from today to tomorrow. High clouds will
move through the area today, with a mid cloud deck and very light
snow possible across far western MN tonight. Mentioned the snow in
the AXN TAF, but nowhere else. North winds around 5 knots will
turn to the southeast tonight and south-southwest by tomorrow
morning. Speeds will increase to closer to 10-12 knots by the end
of the TAF period.

KMSP...no additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed...VFR. Winds SW 5-10 kts.
Thu...MVFR. Chc -SN/IFR. Winds NW 10-15 kts.
Fri...VFR. Winds W 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPD
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...SPD



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