Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 280844

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
344 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

The main forecast concern in the short term period is the strength
of the wind today ahead of the approaching cold front, and how
warm temepratures will get before the front arrives. No
precipitation is expected through this period.

Early this morning, an area of low pressure at the surface was in
place across the Dakotas advancing slowly east with time. This
low will continue east today and tonight, with the cold front
sweeping across western MN late afternoon, through western WI
tonight. With a surface high in place across the southern Great
Lakes, the pressure gradient will become fairly tight today ahead
of the cold front and model soundings indicate deep enough mixing
to tap into some pretty strong winds just above the surface. Winds
will turn southwesterly during the day with widespread speeds of
15-25MPH and gusts around 30-35 MPH in far southern MN and along
the Buffalo Ridge. Wind speeds won`t be quite that high in the
Twin Cities and to the north, but still a breezy day nonetheless.
Given the strong warm sector winds and 850mb temps increasing
above +20C, temperatures still look to soar into the 70s across
southwestern and far southern MN, with mid to upper 60s likely
elsewhere, a solid 15- 20 degrees above normal for late October.

Winds will decrease significantly around sunset and turn westerly
behind the front. The front will be mainly a wind shift, but won`t
pack much of a cool air punch at all. Lows overnight are expected
to bottom out in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Saturday and Sunday...The weekend, particularly Saturday into
Saturday night, will have the best chance of precipitation
throughout the entire extended portion of the forecast. A
flattening upper level ridge will make for a progressive zonal
upper level pattern Saturday into Sunday. This pattern will allow
a pathway for a shortwave upper trough, which will be moving
onshore the California coast today, to cross the Rockies and move
into the Central Plains by Saturday morning. A stream of Pacific
moisture will accompany the trough, feeding into the Dakotas and
Upper Mississippi River Valley. Meanwhile, at the surface, a
stalled out cold front from northern MI into western KS will have
a low pressure center from CO travel along it, moving ENE in
conjunction with the upper trough. While both the surface and
upper features will overall be rather weak and not all that in
sync with each other, they will each contain just enough energy
and moisture to produce scattered rain showers over much of the
coverage area Saturday through Saturday night. Not looking for a
lot of rain, generally up to a tenth of an inch. The precipitation
will shift off to the east overnight Saturday into early Sunday
morning as surface high pressure and upper level ridging once
again takes control. Temperatures will run cool throughout the
weekend with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s and lows in the 30s
Saturday night, climbing into the 40s Sunday night.

Monday through Thursday...A fairly benign pattern is expected for
much of next week with a few shortwave troughs moving through
along with a few weak frontal passages. However, none of the
features will produce much in the way of precipitation nor will
any of them produce large temperatures swings away from the
slightly-above normal pattern in place. One frontal passage will
take place Monday night followed by a second cold front for
Wednesday night, but little in the way of moisture will accompany
each feature. As for temperatures, a fairly good surge of warm air
will precede the Monday night front as highs will push into the
60-70 degree range. Behind this front, highs will fall back into
the 50s for the rest of the week. Lows will fall back to the 30s
mid-to-late week but still remain above freezing.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Main challenge with this period is how the low stratus edge will
move tonight as low level southwesterly winds continue ushering
drier and warmer air in well ahead of a cold front that will
eventually move through near the end of the period. Low stratus
will be stubborn to move overnight and the guidance is all over
the board on how to handle it. Thinking some of the models are a
little overzealous in blowing the low clouds out too quickly,
though. Gusty winds are likely during the day today, and with very
strong winds just off the surface, did include wind shear at KRWF.

KMSP...dry southwesterly flow is pushing in, but the main question
is when will the edge of the clouds break over MSP. FCM already
scattered out, as did LVN to the south. So, bumped up the
scattering time to the overnight period, but there is a chance the
cloud deck halts its progression as the night progresses.

Sat...VFR with MVFR/SHRA possible. Wind NNW at 5-10 kts.
Sun...VFR. Wind SSE 5 kts.
Mon...VFR. Wind S 15g25 kts.




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