Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 181015
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
415 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT SO FAR...AND IN ADDITION TO COLD 925 MB TEMPS...WILL
LIKELY KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH ABOVE THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE TEENS TODAY. SEVERAL LOW MAX RECORDS MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN
TODAY...INCLUDING THE 18 DEGREE RECORD FROM 1894 IN ST CLOUD...EAU/S
RECORD OF 17 FROM 1903...AND POSSIBLY THE MINNEAPOLIS/ST PAUL RECORD
OF 13 FROM 1874.

THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL LIFT OUT TODAY...INDUCING STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY DURING THE EVENING...THEN
LIKELY RISE OVERNIGHT AS THE CLIPPER PUSHES ACROSS. A MOISTENING OF
THE ISOTHERMAL PROFILE IN THE LOWEST 8KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE...ALL
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WILL VERY LIKELY BRING A PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN
MN AND WRN WI AFTER 10 OR 11 PM THIS EVENING. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SET UP. INCREASED POPS INTO THE
CATEGORICAL RANGE OVERNIGHT IN THESE AREAS...BUT KEPT SNOW AMOUNTS
AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS.

AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME
QUITE GUSTY. COULD SEE SOME 30-35 KT READINGS ACROSS WRN MN
OVERNIGHT. IT SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BLOWING SNOW...ALTHOUGH
AFTER THE IMPRESSIVE EVENT YESTERDAY THE SNOW MAY BE MORE DENSELY
PACKED AND LESS LIKELY TO BLOW AROUND AS MUCH. WILL LET THE DAY
SHIFT ASSESS THE NEED FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

SEVERAL LONG TERM CONCERNS. THE INITIAL REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC
AIR MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
AND MORE BLOWING SNOW TO THE WEST ANS SOUTH. THEN UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE TO MORE ZONAL FLOW REGIME BY THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH MODIFYING TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. ALONG WITH
THE WARMER AIR COMES THE THREAT OF FREEZING P-TYPES AND A
POTENTIAL STORM AFFECTING THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT WESTERN WISCONSIN EARLY WEDNESDAY. COLD
AIR SPILLS BACK DOWN ACROSS THE CWA WITH SOME SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE CAA REGIME. ALONG WITH THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND GENERATE
MORE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH. COULD
SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS TUESDAY...WITH BUFKIT PROFILES
INDICATING UPPER 30 KNOT WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. BETTER PRESSURE
RISES MOVE THROUGH IN THE MORNING...BUT THE STRONG CAA WILL
CONTINUE THE WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.

ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY FOLLOWS FOR THURSDAY...WITH RECORD/NEAR COLD HIGH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FOR THE TWIN CITIES AND EAU CLAIRE. THEN AS
THE EASTER CONUS TROUGH LIFTS AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEASTERN
U.S. EARLY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL
ACROSS THE CONUS. SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL CONTAIN
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ON FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST REACHING THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. WITH HEIGHTS
BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH...THE LEAD WAVE IS FORECAST TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED
AS IT LIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY. THIS PROMISES
TO DEVELOP A STRONG CYCLONE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AND MOVE IT TOWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY. INITIAL
WAA PATTERN WILL DEVELOP LOWER CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST...AND THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NORTHERN STATES...DEEPER MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GREATER FREEZING RAIN THREAT
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS THE HEIGHTS
FALL ALOFT...AND THE AIR COLUMN COOLS AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS
EAST...THE MIXED TYPE PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL CHANGE OVER TO
ALL SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A DEFINITE
POSSIBILITY...AND IT COULD BE ON THE HEAVY SIDE OVER PARTS OF THE
CWA INTO MONDAY. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS
AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL ALSO DECREASE IN COVERAGE WITH TIME.
THERE IS STILL HIT-OR-MISS MVFR CEILINGS AND THAT COULD CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT EXPECT MUCH MORE VFR SCT-BKN DECK THAN MVFR.

KMSP...
GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS...BUT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PASSING
2500-3500FT CEILING FROM TIME TO TIME LATE TONIGHT...HOWEVER...WE
ARE CONFIDENT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 2000FT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR. WINDS NW 15G20 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...CLF






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