Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 271731
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1231 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

A QUIET START TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE UPPER LOW
THAT BROUGHT THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA YESTERDAY IS WELL
SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA...WITH UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW
OVERHEAD. EXCEPT FOR A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS...SKIES HAVE
CLEARED OVERNIGHT. SPORADIC FOG HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVERNIGHT...WITH
A FEW SITES SEEING VISIBILITY DROP TO ABOUT 1 MILE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE.

FOR TODAY...PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER...WITH VALUES REACHING THE MID
80S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AND POSSIBLY THE UPPER 80S IN FAR
WESTERN MN. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
WILL BE RACING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA FROM CANADA...AND IS
THE FEATURE OF CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THIS TROUGH
SHOULD BE PUSHING INTO WEST CENTRAL MN BY EARLY EVENING. IN TERMS
OF CONVECTION...1000-2000 J/KG OF CAPE IS LIKELY AND EFFECTIVE
SHEAR OF 40-50 KNOTS IN NW MN THROUGH THE ALEXANDRIA AREA WOULD
SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SUPERCELLS. SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED POPS
BASED ON A BLEND OF SEVERAL CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS (CAMS).
EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP INTO AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER AS
THEY APPROACH THE ALEXANDRIA AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE IS
BEST IN THIS AREA...AND THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WILL SIMPLY
DECREASE AS WE GET LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE SURFACE BEGINS TO
COOL. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

TONIGHT...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES
SOUTHEASTWARD...IT SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN...BUT STILL EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORMS TO WORK EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT...AND REACHING WEST CENTRAL WI PRIOR TO DAY BREAK
ON SUNDAY. WITH THE DIMINISHING INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT...THE CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AFTER DARK IS RELATIVELY LOW...AND WILL ONLY
DECREASE LATER IN THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SUN WILL LIKELY HAVE SHWRS/TSTMS UNDERWAY AS A
POTENT UPR LVL SHTWV TROF AXIS SHIFTS SE THRU THE AREA...SHOVING
A SFC LOW PRES CENTER THRU NRN MN INTO NRN WI...DRAGGING A CDFNT
ALONG WITH IT. TSTM STRENGTH WILL BE TEMPERED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER AND LACK OF INSTABILITY AS MUCH OF THE AREA LOOKS TO HAVE
BEEN WORKED OVER BY TSTM ACTIVITY FROM THE PRIOR EVENING PERIOD SO
AM NOT LOOKING FOR SEVERE WX DURING THE SUNDAY PERIOD. SHWRS/TSTMS
WILL STEADILY SHIFT OFF TO THE E AS THE SFC LOW DRIVES SSE...BUT
THE RELATIVELY SLOW EXIT OF THIS SYSTEM MEANS THAT PRECIP MAY WELL
LINGER INTO SUN EVE...ESP FOR WRN WI AND ERN MN. ADDITIONAL
SHWRS/TSTMS MAY DEVELOP FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE CWFA DURG THE DAY
ON MON IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY AND WEAK
CAPPING...BUT WITH A WASHED-OUT SFC PATTERN AND MEAGER UPR LVL
SUPPORT...ONLY GARDEN VARIETY TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE GIVEN A LITTLE MORE ATTENTION THAN IN
PREVIOUS DAYS...ESP MON...SINCE THE EXIT OF THE SFC LOW AND UPR
TROF WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT INCRS IN H5 HEIGHTS FROM THE W...SPELLING
A SMALL INCRS IN MAX TEMPS FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. WHEREAS HIGHS ON
SUN WILL HOVER AROUND 80 DEGREES...HIGHS ON MON WILL INCRS TO THE
MID 80S OVER MUCH OF MN AND INTO THE LWR 80S IN WRN WI.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT WITH THE
BREAKDOWN OF THE WRN RIDGE AND ERN TROF WILL MEAN MUCH OF THE WEEK
WILL SEE ISOLD/SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS. VARYING DAY-TO-DAY SOLUTIONS
MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN WHICH ONE DAY MAY HAVE HIGHER
CHANCES OF PRECIP THAN ANOTHER...AND WHICH DAYS MAY HAVE HIGHER
QPF THAN ANOTHER /WHICH IS DIFFICULT IN AND OF ITSELF WHEN TALKING
ABOUT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY/...BUT BASED ON LATEST GFS/EC THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE A DRY PERIOD OF WED NIGHT SO HAVE ADVERTISED AS SUCH.
OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY OF A DIURNAL VARIETY...WILL BE PREVALENT FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY STABLE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY 75-80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

EXPECT CONVECTION TO SPILL EAST/SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT...WITH
REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD.

TIMING OF SAID SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE NEAR
SUNSET IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA /KAXN AND KRWF/...CLOSER TO
MIDNIGHT AT KSTC...AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR KMSP/KRNH...THEN OVERNIGHT
AT KEAU. THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG/SEVERE AT KAXN...BUT THE
INTENSITY OF THE ACTIVITY AND COVERAGE OF THUNDER SHOULD WANE AS
THE ACTIVITY PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

REDEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE MOST CONCENTRATED OVER SOUTHEAST
MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI...WITH SPOTTIER ACTIVITY TO THE WEST. MVFR
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT PROBABILITY WILL ALSO BE HIGHER ALONG/EAST OF
THE MN/WI BORDER...BUT STILL COULD SEE SCT-BKN INTO CENTRAL MN.
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT.

KMSP...
EXPECT WANING AREA OF SHRA/TS TO AFFECT KMSP BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z...ALTHOUGH SHOULD BE PRIMARILY SHOWERS BY THE TIME IT ARRIVES.
REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD
EVENTUALLY INCLUDE A MENTION OF TS. ACTIVITY WOULD BE SPOTTY IN
NATURE. VRB WINDS TAKE ON A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 7 KTS. SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY AROUND 06Z AS
THE SFC TROUGH NEARS...BACK TO SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH
GUSTS DEVELOPING...THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 18Z WITH THE
FROPA /AND GUSTS CONTINUING/.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR WITH SLGT CHC -TSRA. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NE 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR WITH SLGT CHC -TSRA. WINDS E 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...LS



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