Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KUNR 181128
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
528 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS DEEP LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS MONTANA INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING/WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA.

COOL AND CLOUDY START TODAY..WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED
LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES BELOW 32F FROM NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. HAVE ISSUED FREEZE WARNING
FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. CARRIED SOME FROST HEADLINES A LITTLE FURTHER
WEST...WHERE IT WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN INCREASING CLOUDS AND
FALLING TEMPERATURES.

UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER CALIFORNIA/SOUTHER NEVADA OPENS UP AND
TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. SHORT
TERM MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING/PLACEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION. BEST LIFT FOCUSED ALONG NEBRASKA BORDER...WITH
SHARP CUT OFF NORTH OF I-90 CORRIDOR. WITH THE PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE 20-25 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT SNOW FOR THE BLACK HILLS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LIGHT DUSTING
OF SNOW ON ADJACENT PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL SHOWING UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST CONTINUES TO EJECT
SYSTEMS OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. ONE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
RAIN/MORNING SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY.
WEAKER DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MOSTLY LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
STRONGER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING IT CROSSING THE AREA
FASTER AND WEAKER AS MOSTLY AN OPEN WAVE. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AFTER A COOL DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE LATE IN THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL STAY BELOW AVERAGE INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IR THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 528 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2015

BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN SD PLAINS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE THIS MORNING. MVFR/IFR/LOCAL LIFR CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR IN MOST AREAS BY
18Z.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR
     SDZ012-031-044-073.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 7 AM MDT
     /8 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-013-014-032-043-046-047-
     049.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.