Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 161603
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1003 AM MDT THU OCT 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM MDT THU OCT 16 2014

SHORT WAVE IS MAKING RAPID PROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THIS MORNING...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT ALMOST OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE CWFA BY 10 A.M. THE WIND ADVISORY IS LOOKING GOOD WITH
PEAK WINDS REACHING THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST ALREADY. MODERATE
COLD ADVECTION MAY KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE CURRENT
FORECAST MAXIMUMS OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY END UP CLOSER
TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 232 AM MDT THU OCT 16 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS RIDGE BREAKING DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH FAST OPEN SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. WEAK RIDGING IS FOLLOWING THIS SHORTWAVE...WITH
ANOTHER WEAK OPEN WAVE JUST ENTERING THE WEST COAST. ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH JUST SOME THIN
CIRRUS CROSSING THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE IS CONFINED TO NORTHERN
MONTANA AT THE MOMENT. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS CROSSING NORTH DAKOTA WITH COLD FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...PRODUCING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT THE
MOMENT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ARE VERY MILD...IN
THE 50S AND 60S.

TODAY...UPPER SHORTWAVE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST ALONG WITH SURFACE
COLD FRONT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY
BEFORE SUNRISE...AND DIMINISH A BIT AFTER SUNRISE. AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE IN...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
TIGHT...AND WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING...WINDS WILL QUICKLY PICK UP AGAIN BY MID MORNING.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST TO WEST CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...WHERE WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH
WILL BE FOUND. PEAK WINDS SHOULD OCCUR FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS SLOWLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX. A WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS FURTHER DIMINISHING. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH WEAK TAILING SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE AREA. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 232 AM MDT THU OCT 16 2014

UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
SPLITTING UPPER TROF THEN MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS MID-WEEK. BEST FORCING SOUTH AND NORTH OF FORECAST
AREA....HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 232 AM MDT THU OCT 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-
     025-026-031-032-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CARPENTER
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7






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