Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 071713

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1013 AM MST Thu Dec 7 2017

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 AM MST Thu Dec 7 2017

Upper level analysis shows low pressure over southern Hudson Bay,
with large trough covering a good portion of the US. A ridge lies
along the west coast with strong northwest flow remaining over
the Northern Plains. Skies are partly to mostly cloudy with just a
few flurries across parts of the area. Temperatures at 3am are in
the single digits to teens, and winds are light out of the west.

Upper ridge will begin to shift east today as warmer air slowly
returns to the area. Warm advection aloft will produce cloudy
skies and some very light snow at times across much of the area.
With less insolation and more lax lapse rates, mixing will be
inhibited a bit, leading to slightly less windy conditions
compared to the last several days. Wind speeds of 20 to 30 mph
will still be possible across northeast WY and northwest SD.
Highs will be in the 30s today, and lows tonight will only drop
off into the 20s.

Temps will progressively get warmer each day from Friday through
Sunday, with highs over the weekend mostly in the upper 40s and
50s. Breezy to windy conditions can be expected at times,
especially later Friday and Sunday. Dry weather is expected Friday
through Sunday. A backdoor front is progged to clip the area
Sunday night, with more seasonable temps returning for Monday.
There could be some showers with the front, but right now it looks
like a mainly dry passage. At this time, it looks like the front
will shift back east of the area Tuesday and Wednesday, with above
average temperatures in the forecast.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Friday)
Issued At 1011 AM MST Thu Dec 7 2017

Isolated -SHSN may occur today, mainly over the Black Hills with
local MVFR conditions. Otherwise VFR conditions expected through
Friday morning. Northwest winds will increase again this afternoon
with windy conditions likely continuing through tonight.




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