Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 171801
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1201 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE IS
PRODUCING SOME HIGH BASED RADAR RETURNS OVER CENTRAL WYOMING WHICH
SEEM TO BE DECREASING IN INTENSITY AS THEY HEAD EASTWARD. DUE TO DRY AIR
IN THE LOWER LEVELS EXPECT MAINLY VIRGA...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
SPRINKLE MAY REACH THE GROUND DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. DRY
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM AS THE
UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTS SLOWLY
EASTWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE WARMER THAN AVERAGE...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS
TODAY CLOSEST TO THE THERMAL AXIS OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND
FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THURSDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER AS THE
THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING...THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE
NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE LOW...SO THUNDER NOT LIKELY DURING THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...BUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE WARMER AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN QUICKLY AND CLEARS SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

VERY LIGHT AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE CROSSING PORTIONS OF THE
BLKHLS. BUT EVEN WITH THIS LIGHT PRECIP...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...13





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