Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 191658
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
958 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT OVER NORTHWESTERN INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL SD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NW
COAST. SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE MOST CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

HAVE UPDATED TO MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WERE RAISED A COUPLE OF DEGREES
IN SOME AREAS...MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS
AREA. ALSO RAISED CLOUD COVER A BIT FOR THE REST OF THE DAY ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND TWEAKED WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 312 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH IS CROSSING THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A
COMPACT WAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH THE WRN DAKOTAS. THIS WAVE IS NOT
BRINGING MORE THAN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO NWRD SD ATTM. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MINNESOTA/GREAT LAKES
WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN MT INTO THE CWA. A QUIET DAY IS
EXPECTED TODAY. A SECONDARY WAVE WILL CROSS THE CWA DURING THE
DAY...BUT ASIDE FROM SOME PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS...SUNSHINE IS
STILL EXPECTED ACROSS MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S WITH THE WARMEST SPOTS ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPING NE FTHLS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. EVENING SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER AT NIGHT AHEAD
OF THE NEXT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A
LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HAVE EXPANDED AREAL COVERAGE OF
POPS OVER NRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA...BUT WILL LEAVE AT 20 POPS AS
MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY MEASURABLE QPF. LIGHT PRECIP WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE CWA BY SAT EVNG. TEMPS SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAYS...PERHAPS A TOUCH COOLER WITH GREAT CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 312 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

EXTENDED MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR SUNDAY-TUESDAY...WITH
RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND DOWNSTREAM TROF CLOSING
OFF OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MAIN SHORTWAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR TROF CLOSING OFF TRACKS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE
SUNDAY/MONDAY. .WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY IN THE
WAKE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR MID
WEEK...WITH SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. EXCEPTION WOULD BE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...WHERE STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL 0-2KM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WOULD
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG
UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...BUT DIFFER SOME ON TIMING/PLACEMENT OF BEST FORCING.
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW LATE CHRISTMAS DAY INTO
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 312 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7






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