Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KUNR 031059
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
459 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK SURFACE RIDGE PUSHING INTO THE CWA.
WATER VAPOUR HAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES INTO SOUTHWEST
CANADA...AND YESTERDAY/S SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY...UPPER RIDGE PUSHES EAST WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
CWA. LOOKS LIKE 00Z NAM OVERDOING TD/S...AND THUS...AFTERNOON 250-
500J/KG SBCAPE OVER THE BLACK HILLS PROBABLY OVERDONE WITH BETTER
SBCIN THAN FORECAST. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HINT IF ANYTHING
WOULD OCCUR...IT WOULD BE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS UNDER
DOWNSTREAM CONVERGENCE NORTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES WITH TEMPERATURES 5-10F
ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER WARM AND MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
ENERGY FROM LARGE DESERT SW LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS LOW GRADUALLY MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD...WITH PROGRESSION TOWARDS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SLOWED BY THE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN.
HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING COOL HIGH PRESSURE
DROPPING INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA...BRINGING SUBSIDENCE/DRYING
TO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 458 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

OTHER THAN SOME MVFR CONDS IN PATCHY MORNING FOG OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.