Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 182319
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
419 PM MST Sat Nov 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM MST Sat Nov 18 2017

Current surface analysis shows frontal boundary nearly
stationary from eastern MT and northwest SD to southeast SD and
northeast NE. Upper level analysis shows trough that affected the
area yesterday is over the Great Lakes region, while ridge is in
place over the western US. Fast northwest flow remains over the
Northern Plains. Skies are variably cloudy, with a batch of midlevel
clouds sliding southeast across far northeast WY and western SD.
Temps range from the 30s over the Black Hills and far northwest SD
to the mid 40s across parts of southwest and south central SD. Brisk
northwesterly winds continue across much of the area, especially the
SD plains.

A dry and mostly mild pattern will continue for the next week as
general pattern aloft remains in place across the region. Medium
range models are in pretty good agreement through much of the
period.

For tonight, skies will clear and winds will diminish around sunset.
Colder air in place, along with the clearing skies, light winds, and
dry airmass, will allow temps to drop to the mid teens to mid 20s
overnight. Warm advection aloft will take place late tonight through
Monday, allowing for a warming trend Sunday and Monday. Highs Sunday
will be in the 50s, with some 60s on Monday. A quick moving cold
front will slide through the area late Monday and Monday night,
bringing breezy conditions and a sharp cooldown for Tuesday. A weak
shortwave accompanying the front could bring a few light showers to
northeast WY and the northern Black Hills late Monday into Monday
evening, but better chances should stay west and southwest of the
forecast area.

The cooldown will be short-lived as ridge will rebuild over the
Rockies midweek, bringing milder air back to the area. The forecast
for Wednesday through Friday is still mild and dry, with highs
mostly in the mid 50s to mid 60s each day. Another cold front is
progged to cross the area sometime later Friday or Friday night,
dropping temps back to more seasonable levels for the weekend, along
with a chance for rain or snow showers as the front crosses.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued At 417 PM MST Sat Nov 18 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. A few
lower clouds may hang around the Black Hills and northwestern
South Dakota this evening but CIGs will remain IFR.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...Foscato


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