Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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602
FXUS63 KUNR 051803
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1103 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 248 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

UPPER WAVE IS PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...PRODUCING
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY/SOUTHEASTERN MT AND
THE BLACK HILLS AS INDICATED BY RADAR AND OBS. SURFACE TROUGH
STRETCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. UNDER CLOUDY SKIES...WINDS
ARE LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT WESTERLY...AND TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

AS WAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING
WILL END BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY. WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION. SKIES
WILL CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

A FAST-MOVING WAVE WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING COOLER AIR...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...AND VERY
STRONG WINDS TO THE REGION. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ABOUT ROBUST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND NAM ARE STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF.
GFS/NAM SHOW 50-60 KT 850 MB WINDS ACROSS NW SD BY 18Z
SAT...CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY AND EXPANDING SOUTH AND EASTWARD.
INITIAL COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWA SAT AFTERNOON...WITH CAA
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH
GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST SD BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WILL ISSUE HIGH WIND WATCH BEGINNING IN NORTHWEST SD 18Z
SAT AND EXPANDING SOUTHEASTWARD FOR SUNDAY. WAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND STRONG MIXING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 248 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS STACKED LOW
TRACKS SEWD ACROSS MN. 700MB WINDS OF 60-70KTS COMBINED WITH
CAA/DEEP MIXING WILL SUPPORT THESE WINDS MIXING TOWARDS THE SFC
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE USUAL WINDY AREAS OF NWRN SD. WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING. COULD BE SOME UPSLOPE -SHSN IN THE
NRN BLKHLS ON SUNDAY BUT THOSE WILL ALSO DIMINISH BY SUNDAY EVE.
DRY WX ALONG WITH REBOUNDING TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE EARLY TO MID
WEEK TIME FRAME AS LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH THE WRN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1053 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...BECOMING MORE WESTERLY BY
SUNSET. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR SDZ012>014-025-026-031-032-043-046-047-049-
     072-073.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR SDZ001-002.

WY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WYZ071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...MLS



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