Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 290255

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
855 PM MDT SUN AUG 28 2016

Issued at 850 PM MDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Fairly benign pattern to remain in place overnight...with stalled
boundary draped across the far sern part of the cwa...with cool
front/wind shift line located across far nwrn part of the cwa. The
stalled boundary to the east was the focus for convection in the
ABR cwa earlier this evening...but warm/dry lower atmos prevented
anything from forming further sw into the sern part of our cwa.
Earlier visb sat pix showed psbl smoke/haze coming into WY
counties from wrn fires...but web cams and obs didn`t really show
any impacts so left out any mention in the grids. otw than hourly
tweaking of temps...inherited grids are in fine shape and no
wholesale forecast updates planned attm.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Monday Night)
Issued at 332 PM MDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Current surface analysis shows low pressure over Saskatchewan,
with warm front extending southeast into the eastern Dakotas and a
cold front stretching southwestward into northern MT. A trough
also extends across western ND into eastern and southern WY. Upper
level analysis shows weak ridging over the plains ahead of upper
low over the Four Corners area. Skies are mainly sunny across the
area with temps in the mid 80s to mid 90s. Winds are light in most
areas, though a bit breezy at times over south central SD.

A relatively quiet weather pattern will continue into the first part
of the week. Skies will remain clear to partly cloudy into tonight.
A shower or thunderstorm is not out of the question across south
central SD late this afternoon as some cumulus builds over the area.
Cool front to the north will slowly slide into the area later
tonight and Monday, bringing slightly cooler temps, especially to
northern portions of the forecast area. Highs on Monday will range
from the mid 80s to lower 90s across the plains, warmest over far
southern SD, with upper 70s to mid 80s over the Black Hills. Upper
low to the southwest of the region will slide into the southern
Rockies and plains Monday, with cool front sliding slowly south into
southern SD in the afternoon. Weak energy aloft ahead of the low
could interact with the front to help produce isolated showers and
storms over the Black Hills and portions of southern SD during the
afternoon and early evening hours. Severe threat looks rather low,
but small hail and gusty winds would be possible with a stronger
storm. Any activity should taper off after sunset, with lows in the
mid 50s to mid 60s early Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Through Sunday)
Issued at 332 PM MDT Sun Aug 28 2016

An upper level ridge will dominate the weather through
mid week, with the only appreciable chances for any thunderstorms
over the terrain of the Black Hills. As southwest flow aloft
develops for the end of the week, slightly better chances for
thunderstorms are expected. A better looking chance for storms may
develop for next Sunday into Labor Day given decent upper trough
moving through, but that is a long way out.

Temperatures through the long term will be very warm with dry
afternoon relative humidities, sometimes dropping into the teens
over northeast Wyoming. The dry air doesn`t look quite as pervasive
as previous guidance had shown.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued At 558 PM MDT Sun Aug 28 2016

A stalled frontal boundary from central through SW SD will remain
in place through Monday. This will aid in producing some locally
enhanced gusty winds at the KRAP terminal aft 15z Monday.
Otherwise good VFR conds are expected through valid fcst period of
the TAF`s for KGCC and KRAP.


.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...Hintz is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.