Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 240530
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1130 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 211 PM MDT Mon May 23 2016

Water vapor shows nearly stationary low over srn SASK with fairly
dry sw flow extending into the nrn plains. A notable short wave is
ejecting newd through far nrn CO with a few -tsra already forming
over far sern WY. At the sfc...weak low is located over far nwrn
WY.

Tonight...a few -tsra are possible given the short wave ejecting
newd...but given minimal moisture and instability overall coverage
will be limited to mainly higher terrain as well as nwrn SD in
closer proximity to the sfc low.

Tuesday...slightly warmer temps are expected. Dry conditions
expected in the morning...but a more substantial negatively
tilted short wave will eject newd towards the cwfa by later in the
aftn. MLCAPE expected to rise into the 1000-2000J/KG range along
with ample shear for some strong to severe storms...with the best
convective parameters generally along/South of I-90. Best
concentration of storms will likely be in the BLKHLS as well as
southwest through south central SD. Precipitable waters in the
125-175% of normal range from southwest through south central SD
could result in heavier rains for that area. Storms will end from
southwest to northeast by late evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Through Monday)
Issued at 211 PM MDT Mon May 23 2016

Persistent upper level troughing over the northwest
CONUS will keep active southwest flow across the Northern Plains
through the Memorial Day weekend. Periodic shortwave energy will
eject out of the trough, keeping a daily chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast through the holiday weekend.
Temperatures will be near seasonal averages, with highs each day in
the mid 60s to upper 70s. Lows at night will be in the 40s to lower
50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued At 1127 PM MDT Mon May 23 2016

VFR conditions are expected through most of the period. The next
system will bring sct shra and ts to much of the region tues aft
and eve. MVFR to ifr conds will be possible in
showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Johnson
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...JC



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