Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 010126
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
726 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 723 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

TSTMS WERE NOT ABLE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN/EVE DUE TO LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE SO HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM FCST FOR TONIGHT. REST OF
FCST LARGELY UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES TROF OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
MONTANA/WYOMING. NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING INTO FAR SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA. WITH LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE...THUNDERSTORMS HAVING A HARD TIME DEVELOPING. EVEN THE
CELLS OVER THE BLACK HILLS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO BLACK HILLS FOR EARLY EVENING.

FOR MONDAY...UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING INTO WESTERN DAKOTAS. WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTS
THROUGH NORTHERN WYOMING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE IN THE
DAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE OF
2000-3000J/KG ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA. SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THERMAL RIDGE WILL CROSS THE CWA TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. CAPE VALUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
REACH ABOVE 2500J/KG...SO SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WRN SD PLAINS. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE THU/THU NIGHT AS A
SERIES OF WAVES CROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES...EXCEPT ABOVE AVERAGE TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 723 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MRNG. THERE IS A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTN TSTMS ACROSS NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD MONDAY
AFTN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER PCPN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...JOHNSON


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